INDIA DEFENCE CONSULTANTS

WHAT'S HOT? –– ANALYSIS OF RECENT HAPPENINGS

IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAMME

An IDC Analysis

 

New Delhi, 29 September 2005

India voted against Iran in the Security Council and K Subrahmayam is pleased but the Hindu Editor is angry and we reproduce the first paragraphs of their writings to say that Indians have minds of their own.

We feel India has to toe the US line so that our economy improves at US expense and India can tackle Iran separately with Artha Shastr diplomacy of the Chanakya variety and say –– you Iran signed the NPT so now you have to obey its International norms. Iran is also a proud nation that needs understanding, and it has energy resources. It has strategy and is opposing USA tooth and nail and President Bush has no answers for the present, to rein in Iran's nuclear ambitions. He needed India's cooperation.

Iranian Defence without US support are keeping P3 Orions flying, they keep old US Corvettes sailing and we saw their good condition at the Indian Naval Fleet Review in Mumbai in 2002. The Iranians are making missiles capable of hitting Israel and want the Bomb badly. They have huge Uranium reserves, which India covets and we have a gas deal with Iran –– so India has to play the game to win both sides.

National Geographic and Jane’s Defence weekly had done excellent stories in the August issue about THE ATOM BOMB and Iran's nuclear capability respectively, with pictures to understand that Iran is just a screwdriver away from the bomb. Iranian leaders have ambitions to be the regional power in the Middle East as they see Iraq crumbling.

In Iraq the US Forces are very loyal and patriotic –– and we venture to say that the fine Indian soldier fights first for his regiment and then for his country but the US soldier fights for his country first –– let us see for how long in Iraq. There are predictions that there will be more countries broken up in the world in the next 10 years –– such as Yugoslavia, USSR and Czechoslovakia –– into 13 countries. Iraq may one day have a Shiite South, a Sunni centre and Kurdish North and so forth.

This suits Iran and in any case Afghanistan will break up in the coming years if USA and NATO cannot tame the warlords. In all this India must play a diplomatic role and in the case of Iran's nuclear programme, PM Manmohan Singh has done his bit by seeing to it that President Bush did not impose his will on Iran but let IAEA do its job, as Iran is a NPT member and should abide by the NPT rules. India cleverly never joined the NPT or the CTBT.

The UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, speaking on behalf of the EU, issued the following statement on 24 September, following the adoption of a resolution at the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna, ”Today, the IAEA Board has just passed a resolution finding Iran not compliant with its Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, whilst deferring Iran's report to the Security Council. The voting was 22 in favour, with one against (Venezuela) and 12 abstentions. ( Venezuala's President hates America like Cuba's Castro but Venezuala offered Bush any amount of oil to tide over Katrina which USA refused.)

“Both the fact of the resolution and the scale of the vote in its favour are very important if we are to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons capability. All this would not have been achieved without a firm and united approach by the E3/EU and excellent work by our diplomats in Vienna and other capitals. The details in Dr El Baradei's latest report and Iran's failure to take and stick to the confidence building measures the IAEA Board had earlier called for, made such a determination inevitable.”

“My European colleagues and I have listened carefully to the concerns of our international partners that we should allow more time for negotiations. That is why we agreed that a report to the Security Council by the IAEA would not be made immediately. I hope Iran will take this opportunity to meet the concerns expressed by the Board: the European side for its part is prepared to resume negotiations within the framework agreed between the Europeans and Iran last November.”

“Iran has an opportunity now to address the clear concerns of the IAEA, and the lack of confidence in Iran's nuclear intentions. It is only when Iran demonstrates beyond any doubt that it is not seeking a nuclear weapons capability that it will be able to develop a better relationship with Europe and the international community as a whole.”

The adoption of the resolution by majority vote followed several days of intense debate at the IAEA Board following Iran's decision to restart its uranium conversion facility at Isfahan in early August and a consensus resolution adopted by the IAEA Board on 11 August, which urged Iran to resume the suspension of its nuclear fuel cycle activities. On 22 September, a Wall Street Journal article by E3 Foreign Ministers plus Javier Solana explained more fully the European position on Iran’s nuclear programme in an EU statement delivered to the IAEA Board on 21 September.

India’s Shameful Vote Against Iran

The Hindu, Editorial, September 26, 2005

The decision to vote adversarially against Iran at Saturday’s crucial meeting of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency is evidence of the Manmohan Singh Government’s shameful willingness to abandon the independence of Indian foreign policy for the sake of strengthening its "strategic partnership" with the United States. Made in stealth without any broad-based discussion within the Government or with allies and national political parties, the top-level political decision (which was reported in The Hindu of September 17) conflicts with proclaimed Indian policy. It bears emphasis that the resolution adopted by the IAEA Board 22-1 with 12 abstentions has grave international implications. Specifically, it recalls Iran’s alleged "failures in a number of instances," as a party to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, to meet its obligations under its NPT Safeguards Agreement, and its alleged "policy of concealment." Adopting a menacing tone, the resolution finds Iran in "non- compliance in the context of Article XII.C of the Agency’s Statute"; among other things, this Article allows the Board "to report the non-compliance to ...the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations." Further, the resolution finds that Iran’s nuclear activities and "the resulting absence of confidence" that its nuclear programme is "exclusively for peaceful purposes" have given rise to "questions that are within the competence of the Security Council, as the organ bearing the main responsibility for the maintenance of international peace and security." Finally, it threatens that the Board "will address the timing and content of the report" to be submitted to the U.N. Security Council for possible punitive action.

Vote in Vienna

A Correct Stand; Not To Affect Ties With Iran

By K. Subrahmanyam

The Tribune, September 26, 2005

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolution adopted on September 24 on the implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in Iran earned 22 votes in favour, one vote against (from Venezuela) and 12 abstentions. In other words, except for Venezuela, no country found the resolution so objectionable as to vote against, neither the four Islamic countries nor Russia and China, nor the nonaligned.

The resolution makes no direct mention of a referral to the Security Council nor of any sanctions. It asks the Director-General of the IAEA to deal with the Iranian authorities further and leaves it to the Board of Governors of the IAEA to address the timing and content of the report required. In other words, the resolution is a victory for all those who advocated that there should be more time for diplomacy to work.

Now the Iranians are on notice that they should demonstrate to the world that they are cooperating to the satisfaction of the IAEA to fulfil the requirements of the statute, and should not ask the IAEA and the international community to accept prima facie the verbal declaration that they are not attempting to develop nuclear weapons capability. This suspicion about Iran is rooted in its attempts going back to 1987 to develop uranium enrichment capability with the help of Dr A.Q. Khan and his associates from Pakistan.

Iran carried on for well over a decade with its clandestine activity for uranium enrichment in violation of its obligations under the NPT. It was discovered because of the disclosures of a defector. Enrichment of uranium for civil nuclear energy purposes is permissible. Then why did Iran not notify its activities to the IAEA but preferred to proceed clandestinely?

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