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New
Delhi, 02 September 2002
As we travel around and meet
people in the know, we are assured that India's basic economic
fundamentals are today in good shape. If only the Government
divested some more PSUs, like those planned for BPCL and HPCL., SCI,
ITDC Hotels, NALCO etc., within the time plan projected IDC believes
India will ride the next few years of the World's depressed economy
well The Strategic sales route must be followed and money spent on
infrastructure by way of Water, Power and Roads, with all these
being privatised just like China has done.
If alongside Indian leaders can
decide to seriously talk about making the 55-year old LOC line with
Pakistan an ultimate International border then India can achieve
even greater growth and South Asia too will move forward.
We have always believed that India's dreams and Indians’
aspirations will not be met till Kashmir is solved, and in the
coming elections, as Barkha Dutt says after sensing the pulse there,
'We can expect surprises’. The Army can only hold ground there.
The Leaders have to seek out a political solution.
It is common perception that USA is going through a
period of depressed economy and the US stock market will not rise
for the next two years. The US and European economies will be in a
flat mode. Let’s hope USA can avoid a recession as Bush is now
seeing the Saudi challenge more clearly and wants to hit Iraq. Oil
prices will then rise. The US stock market may even fall further and
so unless India helps itself to to open up its still closed economy
to the private sector and resolve Kashmir, we will be bogged down in
our old ways of Fabian thinking. Politicians will continue to milk
the country.
Fresh
approaches are the call of the hour. Already RBI is worried that the
recent drought will reduce our growth rate by 1%. However if we
steer some good economic courses charted by Arun Shourie and Jaswant
Singh and his team (Vijay Kelkar, Ashok Lahiri and R Narayan) India
can be a real winner. Of course they need the support of the PM and
will have to overcome some suggestions by George Fernandes and the
RSS camp, to go slow on divesting PSUs and the like. Only then can
we eradicate poverty. Jaswant Singh and Arun Shourie were slated to
meet Martin Feldstein in Harvard, but the meeting seems to have been
put off, but inputs are available.
Side by
side the PM who is the de facto C in C of the Armed Forces via
Cabinet Control has to attend to our security concerns and Pakistan
comes in view. IDC is convinced Pakistan had an offer on the table
at Agra for India's PM along the lines of the LOC being ultimately
converted into an International border. The note that the Pakistan
and Indian PMs agreed to is not being released, but we assume the US
President and others must have seen it. Therefore the item mentioned
below by Ikram Joti on these lines from a Pakistani newspaper is
good news, and deserves close reading coming as it does from
Pakistan.
One of
our viewers feels that if the course mentioned below is taken for
the resolution of the Kashmir problem –– then India can
look forward to achieving 8 percent growth and Pakistan too can hope
to take off from the position of being a semi-failed State back into
a growth curve.
And the
greatest benefit of all –– the nefarious Chinese game of keeping
India down by using Pakistan will be off. Arun Shourie said we are
50 years behind China. It is a wake up call. The people of Kashmir
want peace and progress and the youth want jobs. The time is right
for decisions now.
Do send
in your feedback as we feel the strong RSS camp and the Deputy PM
Advani may not support the plan for emotive reasons and political
survival. Of course USA is the key as the Go Between since we do not
wish to talk to Pakistan and Pakistan is not being bled by India's
mobilisation, as we hoped it would.
Musharraf
has been called Dictator, Tyrant etc., which labels fit several of
our Leaders too, but what no one has claimed is that he is corrupt
and for the time being that is his strength.
"KASHMIR
TOPS MUSHARRAF'S AGENDA IN US
By
Ikram Hoti
The News, September 1, 2002.
Acceptance of the LOC as a border,
barring Kashmiri groups from interfering in India's internal
affairs, withdrawal of Indian claim over AJK, NAs likely to be
discussed in New York next week. PM Vajpayee is going there too.
ISLAMABAD:
President Pervez Musharraf will discuss a strategic headway for
Kashmir solution with President Bush during his visit to Washington
starting September 11.
The
News sources revealed here on Saturday that a formula for crucial
shift from the present stance on Kashmir and related issues enjoying
support of a strong lobby of generals, politicians, cabinet members,
strategists and experts in Pakistan had been formed into a package
for Pak–US talks during the forthcoming visit.
This
package, they said, was expected to invite a tirade from influential
circles that want continuation of the traditional stance on Kashmir,
notwithstanding the perils of such a policy some of which were of
immediate nature given the Indian impatience with what they call
"continuing intrusion".
The
package, sources explained, was being given top-level consideration
in Washington against the backdrop of certain developments which
include the US Marines-led chase of al Qaeda and Taliban remnants in
the tribal areas along the Durand Line. Recent statements issued by
the US policy-makers on the issue have revealed their intentions
that they are going to make their stay in the region longer than
initially perceived and, for this purpose, they need some mini
garrisons in close but safer areas for logistics and operational
purposes.
The
sources added that the US authorities might ask for Pakistani
cooperation that included provision of a base in the Northern Areas,
most probably in Skardu. They further said the US mediation for
ensuring a Pak–India agreement to peacefully resolve the Kashmir
issue involved a bargain spelled out in the package to be discussed
on the issue in Washington during Musharraf's visit.
The
bargain, they said, provided for recognition by both sides of the
Line of Control as a permanent border; withdrawal of India's widely
asserted claim on the AJK and the Northern Areas, and, as a
consequence, Islamabad's agreement to make it clear to the Kashmiri
groups that holding elections in India held Kashmir was an internal
issue of that country. Such a sequel of agreements conceived by the
three sides, said sources, also involved a request from the US for a
base in Skardu for US forces for conducting operations against
terrorist outfits, and for the long-term safeguarding of US
interests in the region."
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