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New
Delhi, 22 July 2005
Addressing
the US Congress in Washington DC, PM Manmohan Singh
outlined plans and bonds his government wish to
forge with USA to enable a strategic partnership,
and even before the sun had set there were
misgivings in the Congress, in UDA, BJP and the left
in India –– especially on the separation of
military and civilian nuclear facilities.
‘India
America Bhai Bhai’ appears to be an appropriate
slogan to describe the goings on. Nehru had
similarly pledged his ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai’
vision, which turned sour but this is the age of
Cold Peace, and India can take full advantage of the
circumstances and succeed. The US is unlikely to
attack India like the Chinese did. India is for the
first time since Independence talking with
confidence and America is reciprocating, both
nations forgetting the testy times of the
past.
Hence
the question engaging thinking minds in India is 'what
is one to make of the India–US strategic
partnership in a nutshell'? Why is USA suddenly so
co-operative? Indians must know that America always
had a strategic vision for itself. That’s how it
built up Japan after the war. So the answer to many
minds today is that USA wishes to see a
Japan–India–America–Russia partnership,
which will automatically keep China out, and
possibly in check.
Japan
dearly wants this too and is spending millions on
Indian delegations in the Track Two mode to pass the
word –– as they cannot say so openly till Japan
amends its Article 9 of the Constitution to become
more responsible for its own defence. America is
doing its best to see that the
Russia–China–India partnership never comes
about. Former Indian Ambassadors to China and Russia
were funded to speak out for China–Russia–India
axis and had made good headway, but this puts paid
to their efforts. In that vein Prakash Karat of CPI
(M) was in China. Recently the Chinese Ambassador
speaking in Punjab pushed for closer India–China
strategic ties. India can play along in trade as one
day our interests are bound to clash in the Indian
Ocean.
We
are convinced that with the new moves India will
gain in economy and technology and employment
jointly with USA and this thrust is a good gamble
the UPA Government has taken boldly, which BJP is
now smarting it did not do. Manmohan and Sonia must
now make it work. India needs technology and funds
to catch up with China. Russia our other strategic
partner of standing can be kept appeased and
informed, so that one day when we are strong enough
we can review the arrangements and may even pull the
rug! There are no permanent friends or enemies in
the matrix of world politics –– only self
interests, and for the time being our interests lie
with USA despite all the problems Bush has landed
the world in, with his war on Iraq. The recent
bombings in London are harbingers for the future and
one wonders if the Chunnel Train had been targeted
–– French–UK economy and tourism would be in
trouble.
For
the time being, China is consolidating and will not
show any fangs till it feels its interests are
threatened. India can become powerful by then to see
that by that day we are ready to face any music.
Indians were proud to see TV scenes of our modest PM
Manmohan Singh and his wife at the White House,
setting about to enter in to a phase shift in
India's foreign policy with confidence. India is now
a strategic partner of USA and if the letter and
spirit of the wording of the Defence Framework are
followed, it is evident we are bound to support
America in its actions and adventures also. Analysts
are asking whether we should discuss how Indian
Defence can assist in Iraq so that US prospers and
we gain too. Also thinking ahead India has to be
clear what happens if USA decides to tame Iran's
nuclear posture by force. Will India object or like
a poodle remain silent. These may be far-fetched
scenarios at this stage, but (as military men now
retired at IDC) contingency planning is the name of
the game today.
We
had analysed the Defence Framework on this site and
shown how Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee has
already retracted on the Missile Agreement clause in
the defence framework as we have our own BMD
programme. The DRDO plan is based on the imported
Green Pine and Rajendra radars and the Arrow and the
Aster seem to be in contention as the missiles
–– the Arrow will need USA’s approval. This
should please the Americans and we can cooperate on
missile warning with American equipment and let
their Aegis ships with Standard missiles be
stationed in the Indian Ocean. Our security will be
ensured and the US Ships can refit at Indian yards.
However the progress will be slow as bureaucrats
will have interests. Media had reported that the
Green Pine radar was being tested at a site near
Mysore and the trials must have some ISRO
connection, which is good.
No
news is coming out officially but we hear of a
change in the Strategic Forces Command, which will
be interesting at this stage as it is the Navy’s
turn to head it.
Indian
Air Force Can Gain
The
IAF has pitched in writing to the Government for an
Aerospace Command at the Southern Air Command at
Trivandrum in a well articulated paper and that will
please the USA. Their experience can help India in
Aero Space Command immensely with technology for
joint cooperation of warnings. In a very well
researched article by Ravi Sharma who lives and
breathes planes in Bangalore, writing in the latest
Frontline, tells us that the 3 DRDO/ADA LCA Tejas
fighters which had done only 400 simple flights so
far –– at 1.4 MACH, 4G pressure, at 15000 meters
and 20 degree angle of attack –– had a long way
to go to be weaponised and in this regard the US can
help with Avionics, weapon fits and APG 67 radars of
the F-16 variety. He says the IAF is never going to
be happy with the Indian Multi Mode radar, which was
initiated 10 years ago and today Active electronic
scanning ASEA is the name of the aerial combat game.
Please see IDC story on the JSF 35 on our site.
The
weaponisation programme, the most difficult part of
a fighter programme for Tejas, is haphazard and hard
points are yet to come though. Hormuz Mama on the
other hand tells us that the LCA is on its way for
weaponisation and is also wary. Hence leaning on USA
for the LCA through F-16 is an answer and USA knows
it, but lets see if Indian planners look at these
options. DRDO controlling the funds has spent freely
on this $1 billion plus project. World over except
in Communist Russia or China has a development
agency delivered a production fighter easily and
DRDO is trying to that with HAL help. All HAL will
do is to continue to milk the ADA and the IAF, and
why not, as it knows DRDO can never become a BAe or
Lockheed Martin but it has the money.
Nuclear
Gains
Space
and nuclear cooperation including supply of fissile
material for Tarapur, seems to be on the cards in
the agreement but separating Military Nuclear
technology means taking the Bombs away from BARC,
setting up other facilities and separate research
etc. will be costly. Another DRDO development
project is the ATV nuclear submarine and no one was
allowed to talk of the costs or the progress but
Rajat Pandit had written in TOI on 21 July, about
the final testing of the reactor at Kalpakam,
indicating the time to put it in the boat at SBS
Vishakapatnam is approaching. A lot of data is on
the net. Any nuclear submarine needs precision
testing and an even higher level of technology than
the LCA. It needs pipes of world class to avoid
nuclear accidents like the USN Thresher and
Scorpion. In UK and USA risk sharing is used to
complete projects. Many claim more has been spent on
the project than the LCA but it is outside the
Defence budget. USA can help on this score too for
safety of Navy’s nuclear submarine as it has
promised nuclear help and there can be give and
take. UK has said it will not help unless India
signs the NPT.
The
East is on the rise and so the numerous important
controversies that have surrounded U.S. foreign
policy over the past four years have obscured a
strategic success with major implications for the
future balance of power in Asia. This new initiative
to transform relations between the United States and
India will need commitment. Through a series of
breakthroughs in bilateral diplomatic collaboration,
military-to-military relations, counter terrorism,
intelligence cooperation, and public diplomacy, the
way is now paved for this major diplomatic
achievement.
The
Bush administration has unveiled a potentially far
more radical initiative with respect to India ––
the United States has pledged to “help India
become a major world power in the twenty-first
century,” investing the energy and resources
necessary to secure its untroubled ascent to
great-power status. In this new report, Ashley J.
Tellis, a leading expert on US–South Asian
relations, has provided an overview of this
official, strong desire to transform relations with
India, the Administration’s assessment of the
geopolitical challenges likely to confront the
United States in this century, and an action agenda
for achieving these goals. (See www.carnegieendowment.org).
PM
Manmohan Singh has taken a big step towards energy
security, help in agriculture and full nuclear
co-operation and space exploration between two
countries that have frequently been at odds over
nuclear issues since India conducted its first
atomic weapons test in 1974 and then in 1998. The
new leaf is a reflection of the proposed closer ties
between the two, and economic interests are getting
inter twined.
In
return for the US pledges, India agreed that it was
"ready to assume the same responsibilities and
practices and acquire the same benefits and
advantages as other leading countries with advanced
nuclear technology". That would imply and
include voluntarily placing its civilian nuclear
facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency
safeguards, agreeing to additional measures under
the IAEA protocol and co-operating in schemes to
prevent the spread of enrichment and reprocessing
technologies. The real meaning of all this will hit
bureaucrats when they see their powers eroded and
they will have to liberalise their thinking too.
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