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New
Delhi, 09 July 2005
As
the ink on the papers, signed by Defence Minister
Pranab Mukherjee in late June, dry along the Potomac
river in DC, it appears that India has jumped the
gun by entering into a far reaching, path breaking
10 year long Defence cooperation framework with USA,
which has upset the Communist supporters of the UPA
government. They claim they were not consulted. One
would assume Russia, India’s long-term ally was
taken into confidence before India entered the
American military den, gladiator like. The Indian
team that accompanied Defence Minister Pranab
Mukherjee to Washington, at a time when the Pentagon
and American troops were knee deep in the Iraq
quagmire and Afghanistan, included India’s
outgoing Defence Secretary Ajai Vikram Singh, the
three Deputy Chiefs of Staff, and head honchos of
India’s military industrial complex. American
giants like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and others met
with visiting reps of Hindustan Aeronautics, Bharat
Electronics, Bharat Earth Movers, Wipro, Tatas,
Larsen and Tubro, Birla VXL and Zen technologies
among others. India is certainly basking in the
shine of the economic progress made by the country,
on the heels of rising exports, software and BPO
incomes and FDI and NRI investments, accounting for
its huge accumulated foreign exchange reserves. The
Ministry of Finance is keen to expend some of it to
avoid inflation, and hence more Indians are rushing
to buy companies abroad, and eyeing collaborations.
Even
the G8, the club of the rich and powerful,
have invited PM Manmohan Singh to attend their
meeting at the Gleneagles golf course in Scotland.
In the new economic thinking there are two ways of
viewing countries being rich and/or economically
powerful. Conventionally it is by the total GNP and
per-capita income, in which India is ranked
pathetically low. Another is using purchasing-power
parities, rather than the misleading market exchange
rates and in that matrix India’s position is high.
On this account our ego is being boosted, to deal
with the rich and mighty who want our help to
generate employment, and make both of us richer.
This appears laudable, but will call for swift
business like decision making.
Defence
Minister Pranab Mukherjee has not been able to
sanction a single big-ticket defence purchase since
he took over, despite the pressing cry of the Armed
Forces especially the Navy for submarines and MR
aircraft, and a healthy budget provided to the MOD.
Yet he has suddenly found a new ally in the
Pentagon, whose long-term aim will include baits to
dethrone Russia as India’s largest supplier of
military hardware. Concurrently USA also wishes to
remain Pakistan’s ally and provide it military aid
in billions, for more reasons than one. India is
therefore willy nilly headed for a most delicate
balancing act, in what could be a dichotomy of
interests, though the Armed Forces and bureaucracy
are thrilled.
The
agreement calls for bi annual meetings and visits,
and many more exchanges for training and exercises,
for starters. Analysts opine that the part on
military supplies from USA will take time as the
acquisition process in India, is in any case
dilatory, and the new 340 pages long Defence
Procurement Procedures 2005 for revenue and capital
expenditure released by the Defence Minister, has
clauses of offsets and multiple bids. It also has
complicated evaluations and clearances and the like.
Many will shirk from decision making since it is
likely to involve inter ministerial coordination.
This is a sphere in which India’s record has not
been creditable. Yet the time has come to hark
George Washington’s utterances made in 1783.
“True friendship” he said, “is a plant of slow
growth and must undergo and withstand the shocks of
adversity before it is entitled to the appellation
“. It appears India’s adversity with USA is
over.
However
another catch is that India is heavily dependant on
Russia and some CIS states to keep it military
machine in good fettle, for the foreseeable future.
Reports in the media that the Indian Navy could well
receive an Akula nuclear submarine in 2008 on lease,
when INS Vikramaditya ( Gorshkov) arrives, along
with the support Russia is giving to India’s most
expensive projects ––the 140 SU 30 MKI, BrahMos
and home built nuclear submarine, the ATV ––
clearly allows Russia to hold India’s strategic
strings in their hands. The highly enriched uranium
for the ATV’s reactor will also have to come from
Russia. The balancing act can be likened now to a
Catch 22 situation. It is going to be the biggest
challenge our politico–military establishment has
faced, and will be eagerly watched closely the world
over.
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