|
New
Delhi, 20
January 2005
As
a sequel to our article India’s
Dream, done over
two years ago, which attracted a record number of
hits on our site, we now analyse whether India’s
dream is going to come true –– with not too much pain!
Super
India
The
recent hype in the Indian media sparked by TOI front
page news –– whose reporters from America are
adept at rehashing scoops and stories from the
American media, but never give credit to the authors
or indicate the dates when the report was originally
published –– about a CIA report that India would
be an eastern and possibly world super power by 2050
after China –– comes as no surprise to us. We
have been saying it again and again and add that
swifter liberalisation and good governance could
make that date come closer and India could bridge
the economic gap with China faster.
The
way the new Government is thinking "out of the
box" suits India (see latest Newsweek story on
our PM) and our problems with Pakistan can be
resolved, as the US woos us more and more. The US is
in deep trouble in Iraq. More recently even angry
Bangladesh agreed to allow energy pipelines through
its countryside from Myanmar.
Mani
Shankar Iyer wants to invest in Yukos for India’s
future energy needs and the gamble may work as Putin
is behind it. He is telling ONGC to stick to
exploration and India could solve some energy needs
on its own with new finds. Things are looking very
good for the Indian economy and money is bulging out
of most seams and companies.
As
an example take the case of Singhvi, a lawyer,
who duped clients of crores and is in jail in Nasik.
Today top lawyers, professionals and doctors talk in
terms of crores because clients can afford to pay.
This is a very healthy sign even though some of
the money is in black.
Rasik
Dhariwal of Gutka gave his daughter the most
expensive Mercedes Maybach as a birthday gift, but
now his wealth is showing even more as he can afford
a Dubai residence like Win Chaddha did!
When
the Army Chief Gen N C Vij in his Army Day speech on
15th Jan told the Army that in the future
every Army officer with 34 years service would
retire with a Colonel’s rank and Rs 24 lakhs in
terminal benefits, and jawans with Rs 7 lakhs, it
was taken in stride. This means with other savings
like PPF even Army Officers will be crorepatis
in the future! One may need that much money to
survive. However, very little expertise is available
in the country on how to make the three services
synergise or modernise the Army and
that could be a hindrance.
It
was actually Ray Cline the then Dy. Director of CIA
in the 1980s who wrote the first report alerting CIA
that nations with geography, population and space
would dominate the 21st Century and he
had cited China and India in that report. Later he
wrote a book in which he explained the rise of the
East, which was hyped about in the 90s, but the East
Asian financial crisis of 1997, which many including
Mahathir Mohammed say was engineered partly by
George Soros, put paid to it.
China
has learnt lessons and has even kept the Yan pegged.
Luckily Dr Manmohan Singh and his team are
economists and they know India too should never fall
into the trap of short-term debt or easy flow of
money out of the country. In fact he and Montek
Ahluwalia and Chidambaram steered India out of dire
straits from 1991. PM VP Singh and company had
hawked India’s gold and Swiss banks especially UBS
gained. It cannot happen again and that is why we
are so bullish.
In
1990 Lee Kuan Yew then PM of Singapore speaking at
the Thai Staff College said India would be enmeshed
in internal debate and economic plans of its future,
but in 10 years it could well have an economy with
per capita nearing $1000. He asked them to multiply
that figure by 1.2 billion and see what a powerhouse
it would be. His prediction has more or less come
true. Today the panwallah, the domestic help and some
700 million in India earn that figure in cash and
more in perks. We are not including the gold that
Indians hoard, which too will come into use in the
years ahead.
There
is a great deal of interest in Indian companies even
if they are in trouble and the West is willing to
invest and bail them out and then go on to make
profits. Examples are India Cements who defaulted to
banks but now have foreign private equity and have
cleared debts and with the infrastructure boom
coming up they will make money. Another company is
Vam Organics or bazee.com, which was not making
money and the list can go on but the reason is the
world sees the potential and that is what Ray Cline
had talked about. We are not citing the profit
making companies because takers for investment are
many and even small time airlines like Deccan and
Kingfisher are talking billions of dollars. Vijay
Mallya in fact could possibly finance the whole show
with his own dollars as many Indians are doing. We
hear that Jet Airways has lost 30 pilots to
Kingfisher.
Luckily
the CIA report warns of the pitfalls that could make
India slow its progress and stumble. Indian
analysts, media, NSC and Indian intelligence
agencies must study them carefully and keep
Government properly briefed and see that India does not
stumble.
India
is lucky to be able to copy and gain technology
cheap. We cite the example of the Internet and the
government is doing well by using this to advantage
and bureaucrats need to cooperate. The Railways
missed the bus and with Laloo their chances of
success are low. To maximise the use of broadband in
India we can use Power Line Technology (PLT).
BSNL
and MTNL are now in the fray. Broadband use is
expected to rise to bring the India in line with UK
and the quickest and cheapest way is to take it down
power lines as opposed to fibre optic cable. Cable
TV operators know this and they have minted money.
This open-wire system does radiate RF energy from
the lines, the amount of which is largely dependent
upon the radio spectrum used by the transmission
system.
|