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New
Delhi, 29 July 2005
It
is being said that a world war is highly unlikely,
as nuclear deterrence, economic interdependence,
globalization all mitigate against it. But
beneath
this calm, there is probably going to be a soft war,
a benign competition for power and influence across
the globe, besides the threat of Islamic terror. It
was Alfred Mahan who had predicted that the destiny
of the world in the 21st Century would be
decided in the Indian Ocean. His prediction portends
to come true since a silent struggle for the control
of the Indian Ocean has begun, with the ascendancy
and ambitions of the Indian and Chinese navies.
60,000 ships traverse the Malacca Straits annually
and the Sea lanes of Control in the Indian Ocean
have five strategic choke points at Hormuz, Bab El
Madab, Sunda, Lombok and Malacca which if closed or
disrupted can throttle the world trade and energy
resources, and hold many nations to ransom. Ninety
percent of Chinese energy imports pass through the
Malacca straits, and Indian Navy as per its
doctrine, has set itself the goal to police the
Indian Ocean with the littoral powers.
It
was in the late 70s at the height of the cold war,
the British decided to withdraw their forces west of
the Suez. The seminal question that dogged the world
was, “Who will fill the vacuum left by the British
in the Indian Ocean?“ Some speculated it would be
the Indian Navy, which was in an expanding mode
supported by the Soviet Navy as India and USSR had a
military pact in place and India’s support to
Soviet Union was unstinted in the United Nations.
That did not come to pass as USA had already
established bases in Japan, Korea and Diego Garcia
and both the Soviet Union and USA were establishing
more bases in the African and Middle East rim. The
Soviet Union had officially approached India to set
up a base in Vishakapatnam that it was helping
build, to base its fishing and intelligence fleet
vessels and provide harbour to its ships patrolling
the Indian Ocean. India did not concede. The
scenario today is much changed with the demise of
the cold war and the strategic shift of USA towards
India and Japan’s and Asean’s moves, to forge
closer strategic links with India.
In
January 2005 Washington Times disclosed an internal
report prepared for United States Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld pointing to an ambitious Chinese
plan to extend its maritime and naval influence
beyond the South China Sea. The new area of
influence encompasses the Indian Ocean with access
to the Middle East to project Chinese naval power to
safeguard its energy and other shipments. China’s
is investing in energy resources in the middle east
especially Iran and will need insurance. Benign
military presence is the insurance option. As
initial “low key” measures China is seeking to
use commercial port facilities in the area and afar,
to control strategic ocean routes and "choke
points." Chinese overtures to Myanmar and
Bangla Desh and assistance to these two countries
have been in that vein. The long term objective
appears to be that of militarily protecting shipping
sea lanes. Already a Chinese company with close ties
to Beijing's communist rulers holds long-term leases
on port facilities at either end of the Panama
Canal.
In
words of Chinese President Hu Jintao, China faces a
"Malacca Dilemma" or the vulnerability of
its imported oil supply lines from the Middle East
and Africa to possible blockage. In moves that have
alarmed Indian intelligence from time to time has
been the successful Chinese attempt to turn Myanmar
into a “satellite” by developing close ties and
military assistance to the military regime. Reports
of China having already built up "listening
posts" at strategic points, pose challenges and
India is now actively wooing Myanmar, and has
offered aid to its Navy. Meanwhile at the eastern
corner of the Indian subcontinent Bangladesh has
been approached for naval and commercial access with
China building a container port facility at
Chittagong. China signed a military agreement with
Cambodia in November 2003 to provide training and
equipment while Cambodia is helping Beijing to build
a railway line from southern China to the sea for
rapid movement of troops and logistics if necessary.
In Thailand, China is considering funding
construction of a $20 billion canal across the
Isthmus of Kra that would allow ships to bypass the
Straits of Malacca. The canal project will
additionally provide China port facilities,
warehouses and other infrastructure in Thailand.
In
the energy matrix of the region, Pakistan holds a
strategic location as it sits astride the exit from
Hormuz, is an Islamic neighbour of Iran and the
central Asian pipelines when they are constructed
will make Pakistan an ideal export hub. The
“high-profile” Gwadar port in the southwest
corner of Pakistan built with Chinese assistance
next to Iran could well be China's outlet port for
oil and gas from Iran and Central Asia. PM Wen
Jaiboa when he visited Pakistan in March assured
full support to Pakistan to maintain its territorial
integrity. He was scheduled to inaugurate the port
of Gwadar where many construction projects are
expected for housing but security considerations
delayed the formal event. Beijing can well set up
Electronic Support Measures (ESM) eavesdropping
posts at Gwadar capable of monitoring ship traffic
through the strategically sensitive Straits of
Hormuz and the Arabian Sea. China is set to supply
Pakistan 4 F22P frigates.
China
also is building up its military forces in the South
China Sea region for projection of air and naval
power from Hainan Island, near to the disputed
Spratly Islands. Hainan Island came to international
limelight in 2001 when a USN EP-3E Aries II ELINT
platform on “routine duty” was compelled to
force land on the island after colliding with and
destroying a Chinese F-8 ‘Finback’ fighter
aircraft. China recently upgraded a military
airstrip on Woody Island and increased its presence
through oil drilling platforms and ocean survey
ships. The Chinese already dominates the Parcael and
Spratly Islands from which the PLAN can move to the
Indian Ocean for deployment. The possession of
Spratly Islands have developed into a potentially
fierce point of conflict as three nations, China,
Taiwan and Vietnam claim those island territories in
totality with partial claims from Malaysia,
Philippines and maritime claim from Brunei. However
the unification of Taiwan in the same mode as Hong
Kong, is a possibility in the years ahead, and the
maritime and economic assets of Taiwan will be
multiplying factors for China’s capabilities.
Trade is flourishing and an under sea tunnel has
been mooted.
Chinese
Naval Build Up Survey
China
has already received the first of eight Type 636
version of Russian Kilo Class “hunter-killer”
Submarines (SSK) considered to be to be one of the
quietest SSKs with an impressive array of sensors
and matching weapons. By 2015, the Peoples
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) will probably number
approximately seventy modern blue water surface
combatants; two to three ballistic-missile armed
submarines (SSBN); and twenty to thirty modern
attack submarines, perhaps six of them
nuclear-powered (SSN) and an impressive auxiliary
fleet. Its Marine Corps, recently expanded from one
to two brigades. The production and development of
support vessels such as transport craft and landing
ships was also being stepped up for transportation
of men and materials in decent numbers to enhance
strategic sea lift capabilities assisted by
China’s growing mercantile fleet and excellent
ship building facilities.
Recent reports indicate that the Chinese Armed
Forces are planning on fielding 16 new
reconnaissance satellites: 8 imaging and 8 radar
satellites. The new radar satellites, which are not
inhibited by cloud cover, appear to feature
synthetic aperture radars (SAR) marketed by
Russia’s NPO Machinostroyenia, which can detect
objects less than one metre in length. The planned
constellation would allow for four daily revisits by
each satellite type.
A
new generation of conventional and nuclear attack as
well as missile submarines are being developed to
replace the PLAN outdated and trouble prone
Ming-class conventional powered patrol submarines
(SS), first-generation Han Class SSN and Xia Class
SSBN. The first hull of the new generation Type 093
SSN, is reported to have been launched with Russian
help in the past year. More than six vessels of the
indigenously developed Song-class SS have so far
been built. The initial development of the Song
encountered significant design and engineering
problems, especially related to propulsion, but they
appear to have been resolved and are now coming off
the production lines at a rate of one annually.
The
Type 052C Lanzhou Class guided missile destroyer (DDG)
has been developed by the Chinese shipbuilding
industry and is equipped with stealth features and a
long-range area air-defence Surface-to-Air Missile
(SAM) HQ-9/S-300F area defence SAM launched from the
vertical launching system (VLS), the four-array
multifunction phased array radar similar to the
AN/SPY-1, and the YJ-85 (C-805) anti-ship missile.
PLAN has already received two modified Soveremenyy
Class DDGs from Russia in December 1999 and November
2000. Two more DDG will be delivered by 2006. In
addition to the powerful 3M80E Moskit anti-ship
missiles the Sovremennyy design provided for the
first time a decent area-defence capability to the
Chinese Navy in shape of SA-N-7 ‘Gadfly‘ area
defence SAM. Significantly, the Chinese aircraft
designers are reported to be working on design of an
aircraft carrier based fighter, and thus it may be
logically deducted that in not too distant future
the PLAN will opt for aircraft carriers having
acquired two old Russian carriers to study
construction techniques.
The
capabilities of the PLAAF has received a great boost
with the induction of Sukhoi-30MKK multi-role air
dominance fighters with buddy and IL 78 refueling
facilities. A total of 78 Sukhoi-30MKK variants are
entering PLAAF service with at least few moving to
the PLAN command. The
initial 20 Su-30MKKs delivered have the NIIP N001VE
pulse-Doppler radar with a 80-100km range that can
track up to 10 targets. However, PLAAF Su-30MKKs
will subsequently be equipped with the much-improved
Phazotron ZHUK-MS. The Su-30MKK has 12 weapons
pylons, 10 of which can carry guided-missiles to
include: the Kh-59M TV-guided missile; Kh-31P and Kh
59 MK anti-ship mssile; the Kh-29T TV-guided
missile; and a range of laser- and TV-guided bombs
in a significant anti-naval mission. The
PLAAF and PLAN are also putting adequate stress on
procurement of force-multipliers and target
acquisition systems such as Airborne Warning &
Control System (AWACS), optical satellites and
maritime Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. However the
attempt to acquire the Phalcon AEW system from
Israel was de railed and Indian Air Force is set to
receive its first plane in 2006. This must have
peeved the Chinese.
Indian
Navy Build Up Survey
The
Indian Navy is also in an expansion mode with
progressively increasing budgetary support and
government approval of its 15 year ship building and
30 year submarine building programmes. The Defence
Minister Pranab Mukherjee has articulated that a
three carrier Navy is on the cards with its
attendant support ships, having already contracted
for the Gorshkov (INS Vikramaditya) to join the
fleet with 16 MiG 29Ks by 2008 and a 37,500 ton
carrier being built at Cochin. Nineteen ships are on
order and the quality of Indian Navy’s missile
power is likely to be enhanced by the PJ-10 BrahMos
missile induction. The maritime patrol assets of the
Indian Navy are set to increase as it is looking at
various options including the US offer of 12 PC3
Orions and Boeing which evidently have a role to
patrol the Indian Ocean as provided in the Indian
Maritime doctrine. The Navy is mastering the UAV art
and looking for a ship based version.
Possibly
as a counterbalance to the Chinese the Indian Navy
and USN have already initiated active cooperation
and joint patrolling in selected strategic areas of
the Indian Ocean. As a sign of significant expansion
of ambitious cooperation, the Indian Navy has now
geared up and displayed deployment beyond Malacca
straits in an exercise with the Republic of
Singapore Navy this year, and exercised in the Gulf
region at least for limited periods with a powerful
Surface Action Group comprising of Delhi Class
Destroyers and Talwar (Krivak III) Class Frigates
with support ships. The navy has provided cover to
African states meet and presented a patrol craft to
Seychelles and is assisting Sri Lankan Navy. The
Tsunami disaster amply proved the Navy’s
capabilities to deploy 38 ships at short notice in
the Indian Ocean region.
There
has been a delay in ordering the already contracted
six Scorpene submarines, but the doctrine
articulates that nuclear deterrence from the sea is
its goal. An SSBN in shape of the indigenous
Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) is under
construction at the ship building facility at
Vishakapatnam with an underwater launched missile
Sagarika which could well provide India the much
needed nuclear deterrence against China in the years
ahead. Media has reported that an Akula 971 is due
to be taken on lease from Russia in 2008.
Reports have also emanated that 4 Tupolev-22M
‘Backfire’ multi-mission strike platform capable
of performing low-level nuclear strike and
conventional attack, anti-ship strike and high-seed
reconnaissance missions, is still on offer to the
Indian Navy. 'M3' version is designed for strategic
bombing/maritime strike and entered service in
Soviet Dalnaya Aviatsiya (DA) Naval Aviation during
early 1980s. Powered by two Kuznetsov NK25 turbofan
engines they have an un refueled range of at least
7,000-km+ at high altitude. The 3 Illyushin-38 MR/ASW
platforms are undergoing Morskoy Zmei (Sea Dragon)
multi-mission avionics & electronic warfare
suite updates designed by Leninets could fill the
gap of naval surveillance.
The
US-China-India-Japan Relationship
Inevitably
the China challenge looms large for America and
Japan, an ally. Historically, when the world's
leading powers are challenged by a rising one, they
are likely to face a difficult relationship. And
while neither side will ever admit it publicly, both
China and the United States worry and plan for the
future. How both sides handle tensions will
determine their future relations — and the peace
of the world. China has grown around 9 percent a
year for more than 25 years, the fastest growth rate
for a major economy in recorded history. In that
same period it has increased its defence budget
manifold, moved 300 million people out of poverty
and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income.
And all this has happened, so far, without social
upheavals. China has followed a very different
development strategy than Japan. Rather than
focusing only on export-led growth to a few markets
and keeping its internal market closed, China opened
itself to foreign investment and trade. The result
is that much of the world now relies on the China
market. From the United States to Germany to Japan,
and now India, exports to China are among the
crucial factors propelling growth. For developing
markets, China is the indispensable trading partner.
The
Chinese challenge is unlikely to present itself in
the familiar posture of another Soviet Union,
attempting to keep pace with America in military
terms. It is more likely to be an "asymmetrical
superpower." It will employ its economic
dominance skills, as the Chinese believe in
accumulating advantage and wear out opponents. This
emerges from the Chinese strategic thinker, Sun Zi,
who argued that 'every battle is won or lost before
it is ever fought'. It has been said America and
China will be friends one day, rivals another,
cooperate in one area, compete in another. However
the answer to the question whether Indian and
Chinese maritime interests will clash in the Indian
Ocean in the coming years is worthy of analysis, for
planners.
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