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WHAT'S HOT?
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ANALYSIS OF
RECENT HAPPENINGS |
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INDIA–RUSSIA
STRATEGIC PACT AND DEFENCE DEALS An Idc Analysis
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New
Delhi, 05 Sep 2001 A
Second Honeymoon In The Making? India's close economic, political and military relationship with Russia since Independence in 1947 is historical and time tested, even though (as in a marriage) there are differences, the bonds now seem stronger than ever. The base as in the past is the weighty defence relationship. PM Vajpayee is slated to go to Moscow in November to consolidate matters. Shri S K Lambah, the former Ambassador is now an Adviser in the MEA and Shri Raghunath, former Foreign Secretary and a diplomat par excellence, is in postion there and both understand the game to be played. Defence
Deals The
way Indian bureaucracy works, the Strategic Pact that Putin signed in
India last year will be strengthened and there will be further impetus to
the major defence deals, which are now worth over US$ 6 billion. These
include the SU 30s (supply of 50 and manufacture of 150), three hundred
T90 Tanks, three Krivack Frigates, six AEW Kamov 31-S Helicopters,
Aircraft Carrier Gorshkov, MIG 29s, IL76 Aerial Tankers, MIG MAPO upgrade
of 123 MIG 21s at HAL, AEW IL 78 with Israeli Phalcon system, (which USA
is likely to release and supply), and manufacture of 25 batteries of S 300
(SA 2500) SAM missiles. Besides the supply of weapons, steel and other
equipment for the Type 17 Frigates at Mazagon Docks and the ATV project
and upgrade of the MIG 27s and 29s are also defence related programmes.
The supply of a nuclear submarine for training of the crews of India’s
technology demonstrator ATV is also on the cards. India's Armed Forces
especially the Navy and the Air Force are dependent on Russia for over 75%
of their imported hardware. Hence the world was not surprised when
President Putin soon after taking over made India his first major country
visit, to sign a historic Strategic Pact on 3 Oct 2000. India's
arms purchases, which ensure that the Russian arms industry is kept in
employment, is in keeping with India's long term interests and
international political compulsions. Post Pokhran II nuclear blasts in
1998 and the Kargil war in 1999, the purse strings have been opened for
India's armed forces. Though the Tehelka scam has slowed decisions for
equipment from the West, like the 66 AJTs, the Russain deals so far are
not affected even if there could be some commission taking. This, of
course is a world wide accepted practice about which IDC has written
extensively. Strategic Pact The
present historic pact has a deep background. In 1971, after the influx of
refugees from East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the late PM Indira Gandhi
had been snubbed by the West. Her appeal was directed to Nixon,
particularly with a request to stop USA's arms aid to Pakistan. Failing to
elicit an appropriate response and on learning that Henry Kissinger
secretly visited Peking via Rawalpindi in early July 1971, to arrange
Nixon's visit to China, Mrs.Gandhi suspected that a
Washington-Islamabad-Peking axis was in the offing. She was contemplating
military action and lost no time in signing on 9 August 1971 the 20-year
Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty with Moscow, which included steps for
co-operation, peace and collaboration. Clause 9 of of this treaty reads as
follows and has military undertones and support against China: "In
the event of an attack or a threat thereof the two (India and USSR) would
immediately enter into mutual consultations in order to remove such threat
and to take appropriate effective measures to ensure the peace and
security of their countries". On
expiry of this treaty, a modified version was signed in Yeltsin’s time
and Russia was made to consult with USA for its support to India on dual
technology items, supply of uranium for nuclear power plants and cryogenic
engines for its space programme, though criticism was avoided by Russia
when India conducted nuclear blasts in 1998. The cryogenic engines were
supplied. But more recently Russia's security environment and military
industrial complex have undergone fundamental changes and now they see
India’s strengths in IT and software. India too has seen how badly it
has reeled under US sanctions. The Brahmos missile is an example of
cooperation between DRDO and MASH NPO to produce a state-of-the-art
missile that cannot be intercepted. Russian Compulsions These
actions along with support to China and Iran for defence supplies, reflect
the evolution of Russia's strategic thought, which is no more defensive in
response to the changing geopolitical balances in the world. In the new
security concept, the revival and survival of the military industrial
complex along Western lines and a thrust for export of military hardware
to China, India, Iran, Malaysia, North Korea and other countries is a
priority. This
has been prompted by a disillusionment with the West. Russia's own
economic woes and the subservient attitude of Russia to the West by
Yeltsin, is not acceptable to Putin. Putin has exhibited boldness and
turned a new leaf to revive Russia’s economy. Signs of revival are in
the air and in the long term India will gain from this. Putin has recently
advised USA to reconsider the National Missile Defence plan whilst
cautioning Europe on the expansive ways of NATO. Putin has made it amply
clear that Russia prefers a multi-polar world and that Russia aims to be
one of the influential poles. It
is in this light that one must view the documents of the INDO–RUSSIAN
STRATEGIC PACT AND AGREEMENTS. They signify a firm and long term
commitment to work in close cooperation as partners on all issues
including political, security and economic. Agreements include matters of
mutual security, secrecy of defence materials and documents, and
collaboration in combating terrorism. There is accent on cooperation in
atomic energy and on mega nuclear power projects with a life long
assurance to supply uranium, which could come into conflict with the
Nuclear Supplier's Group, unless India is admitted to the nuclear club. India needs uranium for its power plants and for its nuclear submarine (ATV) project. The Russian President was also the first foreign dignitary to visit BARC with Atomic Energy Minister E Adamov. Whilst touring India's nuclear weapon repository at Mumbai he made many inquiries. Present Strategic Pact Some
of the salient features of the strategic agreement are given below:
It
was clearly stated that the strategic partnership is not directed against
any other State or group of States, and does not seek to create a
military-political alliance, but these in diplomacy are semantics. Many in
India have called this the second honeymoon. Analysts opined that with US
sanctions still in place and UK denying technologies which have US
patents, and the offered French military wares proving prohibitively
expensive, Russia still remains the best bet, even if its military
industrial complex has been going through some turmoil. Others claim that
Indian bureaucrats and politicians are unable to negotiate deals with the
West and Russia is an ideal and easy route for defence deals with hidden
benefits. Conclusion
and IDC Analysis The
visit of President Putin to India in October 2000 came about after
determined pressure on India because of sanctions for mutual benefit and
clever thinking by India’s NSA Brajesh Mishra. A lot of spadework done
by many delegations and officials prior to his arrival sealed the paper
work. The strategic pact that he signed with Prime Minister Vajpayee and
the agreements that were concluded heralded a new chapter in Indo-Russian
relations, which once again as in the past seem recemented with the supply
of defence equipment. Now
if reports are correct that the Russian economy is back on a growth path
and India is flush with FFE of US$ 45 billion as compared to Russia’s
23, then PM Vajpayee’s visit will be very important. It comes in the
wake of Jiang Zemin’s visit to Russia when he cemented a Sino Russian
strategic pact too and is also based on defence deals which will bail out
Russia’s military industrial complex and provide continued employment.
If Russia’s mindset of deep seated communism, can also be changed by
Putin then India has done well. In
conclusion IDC places below links to various Russian Military, Technical
and News sites, which provide a plethora of information about the goings
on in that vast nation: Official
sites: 1.
"RosOboronExport Ltd." ("Russian Defence Export Ltd.")
–– state run company for the exports of armaments: www.rusarm.ru 2.
IAPO –– IRKUTSK AVIATION INDUSTRIAL ASSOCIATION –– The exclusive
partner of HAL in the joint production of SU-30 MK I jet fighters: http://eng.irkut.ru 3.
Aircraft building corporation "MiG": http://www.migavia.ru/
4.
Combat helicopter manufacturer "KAMOV": http://www.kamov.ru/index1.htm 5.
"MIL" helicopters Kazan factory –– Supplier of Mi-17 famous
combat helicopters to India: http://www.kazanhelicopters.com/ 6.
"MIL" helicopters Moscow factory –– Supplier of Mi-24, Mi-35
and Mi-28 (new model), combat helicopters to the Indian armed forces: http://www.mil-moscow-helicopter.com/Eng/helicopter.htm
6."Air
Defence Systems" –– Interstate Industrial Group for production of
anti-ballistic missile and air defence systems (Russia and Belarus): http://www.defensys.ru/about_eng.html 7.
Baltiysky Shipyard –– Manufacturer of "Talwar" class
frigates for the Indian Navy: http://www.bz.ru/ 8.
"Rubin Naval systems" - Designer of "Kilo"/"Sindhushastra"
and "Amur" class diesel-electric submarines as well as
nuclear-powered subs: http://www.ckb-rubin.com/main.html 9.
Kurganky machine building plant –– Co-producer of BMP-3 in cooperation
with Avadi Heavy Vehicles Factory http://www.kurganmash.ru/ 10.
Arzamas machine building plant –– Manufacturer of BTR-80 and BTR-90
armored personnel carriers: http://www.amz.nnov.ru/index_en.html 11.
Rubtsovsk machine building plant –– APCs manufacturer: http://rmz.rubtsovsk.ru/ 12.
Federal Agency of control systems in defence electronics and military
telecoms: http://www.pacy.ru/eng/eindex.php3 SPECIALIZED
MILITARY MASS MEDIA: 1.
Military News Agency - Daily online edition with the latest military,
defence and armed conflicts news and analisys from all over the world: http://www.militarynews.ru/EMAIN.ASP 2.
"Military parade" –– Superb illustrated corporate magazine
of Russian defence industries: 3.
Avia.ru –– The best on-line daily news bulletin on the Russian
military and civil aviation: http://www.avia.ru/english/ Other
recommended (amateur) sites: 1.
Russian armed forces and militray-industrial complex links catalogue: http://www.edu.uni-klu.ac.at/~kkehraus/index.htm 2.
The best military aviation amateur site: http://www.aeronautics.ru/ 3.
Kalashnikov assault rifles amatuer site: http://kalashnikov.guns.ru/ 4. Small arms amateur site: http://www.guns.ru/ |