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New
Delhi, 15 April 2005
We
had earlier highlighted ‘India's
Dream’ (2001) of improvement in economy and
international recognition and power and we got a
number of hits and comments. Going nuclear was a
blessing in disguise. We also wrote that the
pipeline between India and Iran would be a great
boon to South Asia and meet India’s energy needs.
Recently Condelezza Rice came and wooed Inda and now
with the visit of Wen Jiabao, trade with China has
risen rapidly to $14b and the
Chinese Prime Minister after
visiting Pakistan, had pressed them for closer
relations with India.
The Indian and Chinese PMs agreed to form a strategic partnership, to end the border dispute
and boost trade in an agreement marking a major
shift in relations. "India and China can
together reshape the world order," Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh said at a ceremony for his
Chinese counterpart. India
and China had talks in Beijing on 30 March ahead of
PM Jiabao’s visit and Foreign Secretary Shyam
Saran met Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei.
NSA
M K Narayanan signed an agreement with Vice Minister
Dai Bingguo in Delhi which envisaged that
when marking the border, both countries would take
into account historical factors, geographical
features, wishes of the people living in the area,
security and whether the area was currently under
Indian or Chinese control. It looks as if the Line
of Actual Control (LAC) with minor adjustments would
become the border and in time this may happen with
Pakistan too (LoC).
Pakistan
had signed a joint production agreement with China
for FP17 planes, F 22P frigates and had been forced
to delay the opening the of the Gwadar deep-sea port
(which the Chinese PM was to inaugurate), for
security reasons. On 16 April President Musharraf is
due to visit Delhi and PM Manmohan Singh can
convince him of the reality about India and that he
needs to cool his terror motives, keep the Kashmir
issue on the back burner and cooperate, so that
Pakistan too can join the ‘Indian Dream’. If he
does not, there may be trouble ahead for Pakistan.
Let buses run and people of Kashmir meet and like
the LAC let the LoC become the border with Pakistan.
Inshahallah!
PM
Manmohan Singh has clearly stated that the borders
cannot be redefined. President Musharraf should also
take note that to help Pakistan, India had proposed
to extend the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline to
China and sought greater collaboration between
Indian and Chinese oil majors to build energy
security for two of the world's most populous and
energy-thirsty nations. "There has been no
separate detailed consideration of energy
cooperation between India and China (but) in my
interactions with Chinese officials (on sidelines of
summit meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao) I raised the issue
of extending the Iran–India gas pipeline to south
China via Myanmar," Petroleum Minister Mani
Shankar Aiyar said.
Now
in an article titled ‘American Indian Century’
by Pramit
Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign Editor of the
Hindustan Times, gives a credible
analysis of how US–India relations were shaping up
in the second Bush Administration. Now that the
Srinagar–Muzzafarabad bus has run successfully
some excerpts and pointers on the state of affairs
between India and America are listed. Pakistan,
China and the CPI in India (as a partner in the UPA
Govt. but with its insistence on the common minimum
programme), can only derail India’s march. If
Pakistan does not see the light it will be to its
own detriment. Even Condelezza Rice accepted this.
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Bush was personally mesmerised with
India’s polity, “A democracy of one billion
people,” he told advisors. “That’s
incredible.”
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Going by Indian and US diplomatic sources,
the evidence is that with the second Bush
administration, the big picture is back in
focus. In part this is because West Asia is in a
relatively less hysterical state of affairs. The
India file is again moving around at the highest
levels in Washington.
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Today, with neo-con and realpolitik
advocacy having fused into a radical but
internationalist conservative worldview in the
White House, support in the Bush administration
for modifying the global order has never been so
high. Nor has the belief that India should be
part of any new global architecture.
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There is now a two or three-year window of
opportunity for India and the US to tackle the
stubbornly knotty core that weighs down their
bilateral relationship.
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The omens are good. The second Bush cabinet
is staffed with people who most closely reflect
the policy sentiments of the US president
himself. When it comes to India, this includes
not only Rice but also Stephen Hadley in the
White House and even Donald Rumsfeld. But
India needs to keep in mind that its own
lobbying in Congress and with other great powers
will also be crucial. The international system
helps best those who help themselves.
US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is reported to
have told members of the National Conference of
Editorial Writers that "…de-hyphenated the [India–Pakistan] relationship
–– we have a good relationship with India, we
have a good relationship with Pakistan –– all of
that, I think, has contributed to a significant
improvement in relations between the two."
More
significantly, Rice ruled out any comparison between
the two South Asian neighbours, noting that India
was looking to "grow its influence into global influence," a goal, she
said, the US supports, while Pakistan "is looking to a settled neighbourhood so that it
can deal with extremism in its own borders."…
"a joint venture against terrorism and cooperation in
reducing the threats from weapons of mass
destruction"
and
"pursuit of common global geo-strategic interests
carried forward in calibrated fashion,
leveraging each others' complementarities in
resource endowments. The goal being, to reach
heights never before attained by any two nations on
earth".
In that context, "both nations will need to manage,
imaginatively and effectively, their differences in
regard to Pakistan
which, in terms of the larger picture, should be
nothing more than a minor irritant"
Conclusion
In the context of President
Musharraf’s impending visit to India ostensibly to
watch the India and Pakistan teams playing Cricket,
it would be in the interests of both to see the
advantages of coming together and settle the Kashmir
issue somewhat along the LoC –– there is history
to be made in the sub continent to regain the glory
of Hindustan’s past and ensure a secure and stable
Pakistan –– all a part of ‘India’s Dream’!
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