|
New
Delhi, 02 December 2004
These are good times for foreign and Indian investors,
professionals and most self employed persons as
business results are good to excellent in most
sectors of India's economy and tax collections too
were healthy. Job hopping is common. The national
deficit is something we need not worry about
provided we continue to have pragmatic and business
oriented policies. India's PSUs if sold and
privatised could wipe out any deficit that we
foresee.
Even the
Reliance tussle between brothers is not affecting
the SENSEX. Dhirubhai Ambani of Reliance did not
worry about his borrowings from his shareholders
(deficit) but he was pragmatic (looking after
politicians and he had an intelligence set up) and
see where Reliance is today. But Anil Ambani joined
politics and wants to hobnob with Mulayam, Amar,
Subrata and Amitabh and though he is friendly with
Pranab Mukherjee (as per India Today), we wonder if
the UP Electricty Board will be able to pay for the
electricity that Anil hopes to generate in Ghaziabad
and can the Mulayam team be trusted? The Congress
too is keeping its distance from Mulayam of SU 30
fame. Some money has already been advanced to UP and
surely Anil's election to the Rajya Sabha had some
strings attached. So Mukesh is angry and then there
are stories in the media of other affairs, which we
will avoid. Lets hope they resolve everything
amicably.
More good
news. Employment is up and tourism is booming and
reviving even in Kashmir. We have always maintained
that stabiltiy is good for any nation's economy and
China believed in it and see where its economy is
today. USA has another theory which works for the
big daddies and that is 'war is good for the
economy'. So since the ceasefire with Pakistan there
has been a relative calm in India and the Indian
leaders have had a respite to attend to other issues
and not be visiting Army War Rooms and meeting all
the time with the Army and Intelligence, and worry.
MEA mandarins have less work and are beginning to
realise that build up of Economy is an extension of
Foreign Ministry duties in today's world and they
must hark Putin's policies.
The Armed
Forces and Intelligence which are proliferating
without cohesion or a CDS, are happy doing their own
thing, issuing Doctrines, promoting events, seminars
and people, with plenty of money in their pockets
and travelling, with little checks and balances as
that is a drop in the ocean in the Rs 77,000 crores
($16 billion) Defence budget and a supplementary is
due to be put up in Parliament. They are happy too
and we recommend that serving senior officers too
join delegations to Pakistan.
Prez
Musharraf wants Sonia Gandhi to look into the
resolution of the Kashmir problem and Zardari,
Benazir's husband has been freed ––
that gives IDC the confidence to anlayse the
situation with Pakistan and China, as of today. It
is looking good and lets hope it lasts. The
stability has helped, and on 2nd December a team of
retired Pakistani military officers and their
families will come across the Wagah border and will
be received by Admiral L Ramdas (Retd) as part of
IPSI India i.e. INDIA PAKISTAN SOLDIERS INITIATIVE
FOR PEACE. They will visit the Golden Temple, Agra,
Jaipur and are being hosted by many as hospitality
even in military messes is open for them and they
will meet many serving and retired officers and the
Home Minister and Ram Jethmalani. Lets hope they can
assist to make the LoC the IBL that India has
already fenced in.
We
just heard another GOI statement that China has been
told that we must settle the International Border
along ground realities and if that is true then our
reading is correct as we have always maintained. We
will be obliged to settle 'as is where is' and
Tawang will remain with us with minor adjustments in
the central sector and nil in the Eastern or Western
sectors. If our reading is correct then where is the
problem and the MacMahon line will be a thing of the
past and the Tibet issue gets resolved as China's
own. As the MOD report says we must watch the build
up in Tibet and be on guard. Then Establishment 22,
SSF, SSB and many other military and paramilitary
agencies will have no role left to play –– but we fear that in India
Parkinson's Law is more powerful than in any other
country and so this may just be a pipe dream.
Acting Pakistani President Soomro of Pakistan signed a bill allowing President Musharraf to keep his dual positions as head of the Army and President. The move enables Musharraf to ignore his earlier pledge that he would be out of uniform by the end of 2004. Musharraf has justified his control over the military and the government as essential to achieving peace with India and maintaining vigilance in the War on Terror. We have been saying that India must look kindly at Musharraf not because he can be fully trusted but because he is also looking for a respite to build up his economy and now Gwadar is being opened for tourism, residential investment and Iran is being encouraged to invest. India's need is also a few years of peace and tranquility so that our economy is more robust, and we can look at the issue of a federation in Kashmir with Pakistan where ID cards can be issued to Kashmiris on both sides.
Pakistan tested the Ghaznavi Hatf 3 missile the equivalent of India's Prithvi 250 km missile and both countries claim these are Nuclear
capable. We have some doubts as they will need safe miniaturized warheads and they should have been operated in dummy form by the
Armies, the users. The missiles may be ready at BARC and with the Pakistani Strategic Forces Command but they need to be
operationally demonstrated to ensure deterrence. Also the safety aspects of the nuclear warheads need to be looked into and publicised. The IAF and PAF have loaded dummy bombs on Mirage 2000 and F16s.
In India DRDO continued its series of two consecutive missile tests on 30 Nov, as this short-range, surface-to-air missile was launched at Balasore against the Lakshya target with a warhead. This is great news if it hit the tow of the Lakshya. Then the radar or heat lock on is proved and DRDO needs to uncork the bubbly and call us too! The Akash missile, which has a range of 25 kms, was earlier fired on 26 Nov. Both tests were successful according to reports. Indian officials claim that the missile test has been planned for some time and was not in response to Pakistan's test so this is good news and Pakistan informed India of its missile test so CBMs are moving and we recommend that India take a relook at
Pakistan's offer of a no war pact as the time is ripe.
The Putin visit will mean a lot even if matters are kept in camera as pragmatism is seeping into the Defence establishment. India and Russia will hold a joint paratrooper exercise next year, according to a statement by Russian Defence Minister Ivanov. No specifics of the exercise have been detailed, but both sides have indicated a willingness to develop inter-services relations and move away from the Cold War system of Russian training operations that marked military relations. Both sides are currently meeting in India, and this comes on the heels of the two day excellent seminar organised by Lt Gen Vijay Oberoi of the CLAWS, on INDIAN SPECIAL FORCES: THEIR GROWTH PASSAGE, ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGES, CURRENT STRUCTURE, CONCEPT AND DOCTRINE FOR EMPLOYMENT. Foreign Attaches and media were invited and that is a good sign too.
Disclaimer
Copyright
|