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New
Delhi, 28 June 2005
India’s
Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee is a bright man
and a West Bengal politician who has risen without a
political base. After Mrs Gandhi's assassination he
almost became PM. He speaks English with a
pronounced Bengali accent and Americans heard him
speak Bonglish on Monday at the Carnegie Center in
Washington DC. Senior brass who have interacted with
him say he is better at understanding economics,
rather than Defence needs and security perspectives,
having never been exposed to war, insurgencies and
Sun Zu or Mahan, till he took over in the MOD.
In
a game of survival of the fittest, senior Indian
brass know how to play the tune. The Admiral Vishnu
Bhagwat affair and more recently Air Marshal Hari
Masand’s recall from retirement and promotion has
proved it. As we post this, Mukherjee is in
Washington and according to media reports he
had an unprecedented quiet dinner on arrival with
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, and then he met the
smooth talking Condelezza Rice on Monday. Rumsfeld
when briefed about his visit is supposed to have
said, “bring him on”, in typical gung ho
American cowboy style. By now the establishment in
USA would have summed him up and decided whether he
was the man who can fit India into the American shape
of things in the Indian Ocean.
The
Republicans appear to have a game plan for the
Indian Ocean region and the East –– to pit India
against China. It is a trap –– but if we play
our cards smartly and learn from Gen. Musharraf who
has milked the Americans –– then it will be
advantage India. This is the message we humbly
convey in this analysis –– while the Chinese
Ambassador goes around asking Indian businessmen
to team up with China, with the message that Indian
software combined with Chinese hardware can become
the most potent trading force in the world. The
Chinese know that “non alignment” is
nonexistent.
Recently
India
has aided nations with military equipment and in mid June INS Magar delivered Petya and
Osa class spares to Viet Nam. India plans to set up
an air defence network and supply radars to Sri
Lanka and refit their ships. President Kumartatunga
and Vice Admiral Sandhygiri CDS Sri Lanka have both
discussed a defence pact with India –– only the
scare of the opposition and LTTE in Sri Lanka
dissuades them from signing it. The Army Chief of
Singapore Maj Gen Richard Kuek was here and
India–Singapore defence ties are now very warm
after their Defence Minister Teo Chee Hean visited
many of India’s military establishments. Many MOUs
were signed and there were several visits from both
sides and exercises galore. Earlier Singapore
(smaller than Delhi’s NCR) relied on Taiwan and
Australia for space to exercise and now it is with
India. India is now girded into the world for
security and Russia is watching. Earlier we were
captive friends, and our politicians and bureaucrats
travelled the easy road of cooperation and Russia
knows how to do defence business with Indians.
Now
the Western sharks all over the world led by USA are
beginning to discuss serious strategic moves with
the bait of a UN Security Council seat for India. We
believe that Indian politicians have neither the
experience nor a strategy, so India must not fall
into any traps. India’s intelligence is duty bound
to offer analysis to the Government but that job has
been left to the NSA. There is just so much one man
can do, and Sakiat Datta has done a good story in
Outlook Magazine on India’s intelligence and the
internecine battles raging. The RAW chief Tharakan
brought in by NSA from Kerala to revamp things has
been given an extension and NTRO India’s fledging
National Security Agency for technical listening,
snooping and reporting is still to deliver and is
probably going to have an empire on the Mehrauli–Gurgaon
road where radio listening antennas are housed.
China–India
India
is doing incremental business with China and is
aware that it is the right thing to do but it also
views nuclear China, which is arming itself, as its
biggest competitor in the region for dominance. It
also sees China lining up new energy sources, which
will have to transit the Indian Ocean, which India
sees as its parish. The combined appetite of the two
Asian giants for oil is also raising prices and
putting greater demands on world oil supplies. The
armies of India and China, which fought a border war
four decades ago, are now burying the past and
leaders are doing their bit to resolve the border
more or less on as is where is basis along the line
of peace and tranquility, with minor adjustments,
and mutually working to drop claims.
The
Indian Navy exercised with the Chinese Navy off
Shanghai in 2004, and recently in end May the Chief
of Naval Staff Admiral Arun Prakash who is also
Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee held talks with
the visiting Chinese Chief of General Staff, General
Liang Guanglie. The visiting Army general’s team
included high ranking naval and air force officers
of the PLA. The PLA Navy has been invited to join in
exercises off India and the delegation visited
Western Naval Command. Indian armed forces officers
have been deputed to institutions in China and many
strategic teams have visited each other’s
institutions. The Chinese General was the guest of
Army Chief Gen J J Singh and Indian Army declared it
would hold unprecedented joint counter-terrorism and
peacekeeping training programmes with China in the
near future. One Indian Major General and a team
witnessed exercises in China. This is being
reciprocated.
These
are interesting times as the Chinese say, and if
Mukherjee and the Indian Ambassador in Washington
known how to be wily diplomats, they should play
their cards right now, so that during PM Manmohan
Singh's visit to meet Bush in mid July, India can
reap a harvest. Our aim should be to squeeze
technology from USA, show we are friends and show
utmost cordiality and offer traditional hospitality
and ensure steps to see that FDI flows like water,
but also see that USA does not build India up to
raise Chinese suspicions and reduce Russian
cooperation.
It
will be a tight rope walk but ‘when the going gets
tough, the tough get going’. America is awash with
money and the deficit does not bother them and now
is the time, with the water rising that Mukherjee
must grasp the tide to improve the lot of Indians.
On
ballistic missile defence it is reported India’s
Swordfish plan is doing well with Green Pine, so we
can cooperate with USA and get Link 16 technology
incorporated but not allow them to set up their
facilities in India since BMD is anti North Korea,
China and Iran for the present.
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