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New
Delhi, 31 May 2002
We
received the following piece from an IDC watcher and it makes sense.
There is a definite view that if India is willing to accept the LOC
as the International Border then the West is ready to get Pakistan
to agree and dismantle the training camps, but the latest in London
from where this report was filed is that India is hopeful of getting
back the POK. There is talk in London that the Pakistani missile
tests were not as successful as President Musharraf had claimed them
to be and they are seeking Chinese help.
INDIA–PAKISTAN
–– LET‘S HAVE A WAR
By
An IDC Watcher
“The
"war-cry" is being sounded on both sides but war is
something which neither side wants nor can afford. What does it all
mean and where are we headed?
When
Niazi had cracked down in East Pakistan in March, 1971, a very
highly connected and knowledgeable civilian gentleman (a
Padmabhushan at that) told me that Indira Gandhi had called
Maneckshaw on or about the 24/25th of March 71 and told him that the
Army could go in on 26th but she wanted to be assured of
‘victory’ in 3 days –– by 29th March! Maneckshaw naturally
could not oblige and this gentleman lamented that Maneckshaw had no
balls!! And the war occurred on 2/3 Dec 1971, after almost 8
months of preparation.
Why
is Shri Vajpayee lamenting now –– that he should have 'gone-in'
on or soon after 13 Dec? Do our leaders (and the civilian population
at large) have no comprehension whatsoever how a war (if at all) is
to be conducted? When I was in Delhi (last Dec-Apr), it was common
knowledge that even though the order for mobilisation for placing
the troops at the border was given, the Army was ill prepared (men
and materials) to conduct any sort of serious campaign in Dec/Jan.
The
Americans started their build up in the Gulf in July and the
following year in Jan the Gulf War against Saddam Hussain was fought
when all their personnel and infrastructure were in place. During
this preparation phase most believed that there would be no war -
and I had commented to an American friend in Sep/Oct that the
American troops had not gone to the desert to celebrate
Christmas/New Year and that there would be a war in mid Jan or so,
but would not last beyond February. After all you cannot spoil the
holiday season, can you!
The
frenzy of diplomatic activity and various countries advising their
nationals (including non essential diplomatic staff) to leave
Pakistan (and India) now indicates that something is indeed afoot
–– or is it? The Indian Army told the reservists in mid-Jan
after Musharaff's speech of 12 Jan to stand down and I guess that
they may have been again recalled at this stage. Is the Army ready
NOW if the leadership wants a war? And more importantly, is there
going to be a war?
I
say, yes. What do you think?”
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