INDIA DEFENCE CONSULTANTS

WHAT'S HOT? –– ANALYSIS OF RECENT HAPPENINGS

Despite Several Misdemeanors USA Supports Pakistan

An IDC Analysis 

 

New Delhi, 29 December 2002

India Today’ suggested in a cover story last fortnight that India nearly went to war twice against Pakistan during its mobilisation. It was not very professionally done but had a bit of Bollywood make-believe and good writing laced with glossy pictures. Pioneer had carried our opinion and the matter had been debated in service circles too. It must be made clear that War is serious business, needs preparations and very precise military aims and political direction. These were never forthcoming.

Recent reports in the media however suggest that the Army Chief designate Lt Gen N C Vij confirmed that only a foray into POK to attack terrorist sites was planned but was called off. It is no wonder therefore that Pakistan took full advantage. President Musharraf on TV on 25th December was "crowing away" that Pakistan had won the war that India was planning to fight, without firing a shot. He extolled what Pakistan had achieved under him and went on to belittle the mobilisation of the Indian Armed Forces, which has now ended. Pakistan's President is a clever survivor, and is now making much of the mobilisation that India undertook. USA also wants to take the credits. Yet internally Musharraf is under pressure and USA wants him to quell al Queda in Pakistan.

Pakistan's credibility should be in question at a time when USA is wooing India. Lt Gen Javed Nasir a former ISI head revealed that Pakistan breaks every rule under the sun and we ask how reliable is Pakistan as an ally of USA? One way to gauge the reliability is to see how Pak defied UN resolutions in relation to arming Bosnia. Pakistan has made hand held SAM missiles in house and they reverse engineered the Stingers with Chinese help. It is believed that one of them hit a Canberra during the Kargil war and another the Avro 748 plane that Air Marshal Bhatia was piloting, which raised a controversy last year, and led to his transfer out of the prestigious Western Air Command. Pakistan's Nuclear help to N Korea is now an open secret.

PTI has the full story in the South Asian Tribune that makes it clear that Pakistan has been trying to project itself as an Islamic ally, and we should be careful it does not fund terrorism in Gujarat. This will be tempting for Pakistan and the ISI. USA is keeping a blind eye as far as Pakistan is concerned. We had already reported that Pakistan was passing on nuclear secrets to N. Korea. This had been explained away as ‘for personal reasons’, and US Defence Secretary Powell believes that explanation offered by Gen Musharraf?

Passing on missiles to Bosnia in defiance of the UN will also be explained away as the statements of an unreliable witness (though once belonging to ISI). India must be wary and Dy. PM said just that at the CRPF Anniversary parade on 28th December. 

L K Advani, Minister of Home Affairs and Dy. Prime Minister is on record to state that ISI is a terrorist agency. However Uncle Sam is unable to declare Pakistan a terrorist state. It is clear that a terrorist state is more dangerous than a terror outfit, say, like the one run by Osama Bin Laden.

And now President Bush is planning a war on Iraq and India's powerful NSA Brajesh Misra returned from Washington after a three hour meeting with Condelezza Rice. He was satisfied with what USA is doing, but not satisfied with Pakistan. Media reports suggest that he supported USA's NMD.

A delegation from India is scheduled for the first round of discussions, to be held in Washington on 15–16 January, and will feature an inter-agency team from Delhi headed by the joint secretary (disarmament) led by Sheelkant Sharma from the foreign ministry. This will be followed by Nalin Surie from the MEA, who heads the East Asia division to be in Washington in February to start the dialogue.

The Bush administration has made no secret of the fact that it sees India as a strategic counter to China in Asia. Yet no spares for the Armed Forces have been supplied by USA and Weapon Locating Radars from US Army stocks are not forthcoming. What, pray, is the game plan of the only super power in the world which declared a war of the 21st century on terror? How critically is the war on terror dependent upon US–Pak alliance? Another news report claims that Pakistan made Amza hand held SAMs were found in Kashmir and another says a terror outfit claimed it shot down the MIG 21 Type 75 that crashed on 26th December while landing in Srinagar. The pilot bailed out but broke his arm.

The American War on Iraq now looks inevitable if USA can find an excuse. We are not aware what Brajesh Misra told Condelezza Rice on this subject but IDSA head Dr Santanam opposes USA in an article. India can do little since even Russia and France are coming on board, so we should keep quiet. In India when we cow down and support Russia as we did for Afghanistan or Viet Nam, there is acceptance, but agreeing with USA or Bush is anathema.

This mindset has to change. These are therefore interesting times for India–US relations so we post a piece by PTI on how Pakistan sent missiles to Bosnia, and seem to get away. It is China that is watching the fun.

'Pak defied UN, supplied arms to Bosnia'

Press Trust of India

New Delhi, December 27: In a starling revelation, a former ISI Chief has claimed in his petition that Pakistan defied the United Nations ban on supply of arms to the Bosnian Muslims and sophisticated anti-tank guided missiles were air lifted to them by Isotherm petition, which was filed before the court against the country's largest newspaper group "Jung" by former ISI chief Lt Gen Javed Nasir, stated that the UN embargo was defied to help Bosnians fight the Serbs.

The petition, downloaded from the website of US-based Pakistani web weekly "South Asia Tribune", referred to his career, recounting his achievements and his credentials as a leading Islamic international figure and alleged that he had been defamed by a report in the English language newspaper "The News". He said in his petition that despite the UN ban on supply of arms to the besieged Bosnians, he successfully air lifted sophisticated anti-tank guided missiles which turned the tide in favour of Bosnian Muslims and forced the Serbs to lift the siege, much to the annoyance of the US Government. The documents go on to give details of how the US threatened Pakistan, then ruled by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to be declared as a terrorist state, if Sharif did not remove him from the post of the ISI chief.

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