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New
Delhi, 20 October 2005
In
many of our analyses we have highlighted how well China was doing
and its military build up was scary even for USA. Japan is also
worried. China is racing ahead in Space flights and had sent its
second successful manned space mission with home-grown Cosmonauts in
space for three days and brought them back safely.
Their
nuclear forces are formidable too and they are also struggling to
build good nuclear submarines (like our ATV), and they have had
successes already and unlike us who get help from Russia they did it
their way, despite serious accidents. They do not mind pinching
technology.
The
North Korean No Dong and M11/9 missiles factory could not have come
to Pakistan without Chinese support and clearances. In hardware they
are leading the world and 65% of the laptops are built in China
–– they will surely catch up in software development also once
their English improves. Thinkpad of IBM is now Chinese and they are
capturing the market.
In
athletics and sports they are a force to reckon with and real estate
prices have soared in Shanghai which has more skyscrapers than New
York and more modern. It is no wonder USA has signed a Defence
framework with India and 16 Agreements. Technology Minister Kapil
Sibal just signed an Agreement with Codelezza Rice allowing transfer
of technologies and President Bush is hell bent to get nuclear
supplies to India cleared through the Congress.
Japan
wants to join India as in the end China will be the common
adversary, not today but in the years ahead. Defence Minister Gen
Cao Guanchan has admitted to Rumsfeld that the Chinese defence
budget is about $30 billion and does not include expenditure on
space, nuclear, medical and pensions. Rumsfeld puts it at $90
billion. See below.
We
therefore feel that we must trade and dialogue aggressively and have
a long term strategy for China and aim for a favorable trade balance
and permit Indian companies to invest freely in China and have a
policy to encourage it. The military must keep the cutting edge it
has in quality and have confidence to let the Armed Forces get hands
on to our nuclear arsenal. Then we can always have deterrence and
keep our Chinese friends aware of our strengths.
Stobdan
a former staffer in NSC had some telling things to say about the way
the Chinese are moving in Tawang and Rumsfeld was in China recently
and some snippets are appended to appreciate the situation.
Article
by Stobdan
The
details of the sixth round of Sino-Indian Special
Representatives-level talks (September 26–28) have not been made
public. The talks in Beijing were the first to be held in the
backdrop of the turnaround in India’s foreign policy, marked by
its support to the US and EU-led resolution against Iran in the
crucial IAEA meeting on September 24. On September 27, Beijing
decided to put off the trade through Nathula that was to begin on
October 2, saying that infrastructure on its side was not ready.
The
Chinese have never hidden their apprehensions about closer Indo–US
ties. The guiding principles on a boundary settlement too appeared a
diversionary trick. They sought “meaningful and mutually
acceptable adjustments” for a “package settlement”. Article V
of the Principle — historical evidence and national sentiments —
provides the Chinese sufficient room to manipulate the agenda.
Chinese
writings have lately been referring to Monyul’s (Tawang)
importance to Tsangyang Gyatso or the 6th Dalai Lama’s birthplace.
Gyatso was born in Urgelling, South Tawang in 1683. Surprisingly,
the position of Tibetans on Tawang is also not clear. When Dalai
Lama visited Arunachal in 2003, he obliquely referred to Tawang as
part of Tibet. Any success of the current China–Dalai Lama
dialogue will depend on the Tibetan position on Tawang. Tibetans
cannot take the position that Tawang is not part of Tibet. As Johan
Garver, citing Chinese sources writes, besides the Dalai Lama
factor, Tawang’s importance to China lay in its capacity to
sustain one-third of the Tibetan economy and its strategic proximity
to the North East and Bay of Bengal.
Meanwhile,
India’s hold over Tawang, if not handled with sensitivity, could
become tenuous. Tension is brewing in Tawang and Bomdila. As the
power balance has shifted in favour of other tribes, the Monpas,
Sherdukpens and Khamptis are increasingly facing religious
onslaughts by the National Socialist Council of Nagaland
(IM)&(K). The NSCN’s call to either embrace Christianity or
face capital punishment is frightening for the Monpas and Khamtis.
New Delhi’s apathy combined with pressure from NSCN could
eventually throw the Monpas into China’s lap.
China's Military Buildup Raises Questions
Agence
France-Presse, October 19, 2005
U.S.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned China on Wednesday that it
is sending "mixed signals" with a military buildup whose
pace, scope and secretiveness have led other nations to question its
intentions. Defense Minister Cao Guangchuan denied that China has
understated its military spending and insisted that raising the
living standards of the country's poor made it "impossible to
massively increase" military spending.
Rumsfeld
raised U.S. concerns about China's military intentions in a meeting
with Cao and earlier in a seminar at a school that grooms future
Communist Party leaders.
He
was also scheduled to meet President Hu Jintao, and make an
unprecedented visit to the headquarters of the Strategic Rocket
Forces. After meeting with Cao, Rumsfeld said they discussed
"what I would characterize as mixed signals we've been getting
... and to understand the reaction one gets when one receives mixed
signals." Cao, who described the talks as candid, pragmatic and
constructive, insisted that Chinese military spending this year
totals about 30 billion dollars, although he acknowledged that the
space program and other equipment spending was outside the defense
budget. "That is the true budget we have today," he said.
The
Pentagon in July estimated the true size of Chinese defense spending
at 90 billion dollars a year, with much of it going to sophisticated
weaponry that will enable China to project power in the Asia-Pacific
region.
PS
Another
View
A
regular visitor who regularly visits China and our website www.indiadefence.com,
recently went to Macau for a holiday after visiting China on
business. He had this to say:
Macau
was food, fun and yes, it too has grown and developed under the
Chinese rule. Previously it was like a backwater area but is now
thriving in its own right. Whenever I see how much and how fast
China is developing, I tell myself, that for India to even do half
as much we need a benevolent dictator as we simply cannot afford
democracy and its corruption!!
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