India is trying to talk to Pakistan,
ULFA and the Nagas to quell insurgency and terorism. The MEA and
Home Ministry, under two dynamic Secretaries, who are considered
'know it alls' with their past experience and with deep selection,
seem to have sidelined the Army in most negotiations, if the media
is to be believed. Maybe they are right the Army needs to be
apolitical and can sacrifice. India's army is so loyal as seen in
ACM Tipnis's article, that it felt it had no need to question even
militarily wrong decisions as long as the Services brass get
their goodies and foreign trips, the larger part of Governance is
not considered their domain.
The ULFA are playing games. Gen
Rodrigues as COAS had said good governance is also the Army's
concern and he was roasted over the coals for it, though now he has
been resurrected as a Governor, because he like the late Gen Bhagat
knows how to govern. The Army Generals of India and Pakistan need to
be brought into the act as they count, but MEA will never allow
that. The Navy should be involved in the Sri Lanka imbroglio and all
these issues should be on the NSA's plate in the PMO, who has the
hindsight of 40 years of involvement in regional Intelligence and
has either written or read every UO Intelligence note.
But we should know that no Intelligence
set up has ever solved larger issues, as the Intelligence arm is
only a tool and has vested and monetary interests and needs to be
guided by higher policy. The region is not peaceful and Indian
diplomacy has been kept busy with peripherals. No decision is also a
decision, as was taught by Narasimha Rao
but in those days we were not a nuclear power or such a robust
economy. We had only $1 bill in FFE and inflation was 12%. Today we
have $170 bill in FFE
5.4% inflation, some more billions stashed away abroad by Indians
(arms dealers included) and billions with NRIs wanting to come back.
So regional stability is of great importance and we have be
decisive.
We had been closely following the
clashes in Sri Lanka, especially the naval battle in the South India
seas the Sri Lankan Government forces have the upper hand over
the LTTE for the time being and are being ruthless. That is good if
Prabhakaran gives up his terms for Federalism and drops the demand
for Tamil Eelam. PM Manmohan Singh had warned PM Mahinda
Rajapakse and his government that the Tamils were being overly
persecuted, though he has never asked Prabhakaran or the LTTE what
type of federalism they want. Hence the confusion with India, to say
on one hand they want a federal Sri Lanka but not knowing how to go
about it. This is what perplexes the Sri Lakans.
The following piece by B Raman needs
reading too.
Others strategists like Tamil leader
Vaiko would like to see Sri Lanka break into two like the creation
of Bangladesh and Mrs Gandhi had made contingency plans. Many say
that Rajiv Gandhi had innocently promised this to Prabhakaran, when
they met one to one in South Block in 1987. At that time Rajiv was a
novice trying to get Prabhakaran on his side, as Bofors had blown
and he wanted a diversion and wanted to rush to Colombo
where TN Seshan saved his life when a sailor (mark you it was a
sailor) tried to kill him with a rifle butt. That is why they say
the LTTE killed him because they say he went back on his word. This
is corroborated by many Sri Lankans too.
Today the Sri Lankan army is feeling
lucky and is better armed. In the East the LTTE's best commander
Karuna broke away, and we learn he is siding with the Sri Lankan
Government. They are using him like India used the mukhti bahini.
The GOI is being pressed to give no help to Sri Lanka and India
threatened to take back the radars BEL supplied to Sri Lanka. This
is the way USA behaves, so very interesting times lie ahead for the
region and India will have to act if the repression continues and
refugees keep come to Tamil Nadu. In the meantime the clever Sri
Lankans have opened the Jaffna Road route to pacify the rebels and
let goods pass. We feel Indias actions will be dictated by DMK and
Karunanidhi, a sharp and astute Tamil politician. India's Sri Lanka
policy will be crafted from Chennai and its needs to be done soon,
if the Sri Lankan Government continues to suppress the LTTE.
Mr B Raman has different views and so we
will watch as India enjoys Hu Jintao's visit to India and Pakistan
and the nuclear deal goes into the final boxing ring. China has
interests in Sri Lanka as it has ambitions in Humbantota port.
International Terrorism Monitor
03. 11. 2006
Sri Lanka: Playing Into Hands Of LTTE
By B. Raman
1. India has been facing the problem of
ideological terrorism from left-wing extremists almost since it
became independent in 1947. This terrorism has gone through various
mutations and continues to intensify and spread. It is threatening
to become the second major internal security problem, after jihadi
terrorism. The Prime Minister has held a number of strategy sessions
with senior police officers and internal security experts on how to
deal with it. Not one of those, who participated, suggested that we
use the Air Force or heavy artillery against the terrorists and
insurgents.
2. India has been facing the problem of
tribal insurgency in its North-East since 1956. The Government has
been trying to deal with it at two levels political and
operational. Mizoram was a success story for India's
counter-insurgency managers. In Nagaland, there has been a
cease-fire for nearly 10 years and a political dialogue to find a
solution has been going on. The Prime Minister periodically holds
strategy sessions with his advisers on how to deal with jihadi
terrorism. Not one of those, who participated, suggested that we use
the Air Force or heavy artillery.
3. India has been facing the problem of
jihadi terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir and outside since 1989.
Thousands of innocent civilians Hindus and Muslims have been
killed by the terrorists, who are showing signs of being inspired by
the pan-Islamic ideology of Al Qaeda. The Prime Minister
periodically holds strategy sessions with his advisers on how to
deal with jihadi terrorism. Not one of those, who participated,
suggested that we use the Air Force or heavy artillery.
4. Even in the unlikely event of our
professionals suggesting the use of the Air Force or heavy artillery
against the insurgents and terrorists, the Indian political
leadership is unlikely to accept it.
5. There are some instances in the world
of the Air Force and the heavy artillery being used in
counter-terrorism operations the US in Iraq, the NATO forces in
Afghanistan, Israel in the Lebanon, Pakistan in Balochistan and the
Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Sri Lanka in the
Tamil-inhabited Northern and Eastern Provinces. The US, the NATO
forces and Israel used or have been using their Air Force and heavy
artillery against foreign terrorists in foreign territory.
6. The Government of Mr. Mahinda
Rajapakse in Sri Lanka has the dubious distinction of sharing with
the Government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan the odium of
using the Air Force and heavy artillery in its own territory against
its own citizens. In the early 1970s, the Government of the late
Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto used its Air Force ruthlessly to mow down the
Baluchis, who asked for greater autonomy. Since December last year,
the Government of Gen. Pervez Musharraf has once again being using
its Air Force against the Baluchis in order to crush their movement
for autonomy or independence. Hundreds of innocent Baluchi civilians
have been killed. Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, the legendary Baloch
nationalist leader, was mowed down in his hide-out in August last by
a decapitation strike of the Pakistan Air Force. On October 30,
2006, the Pakistan Air Force blew up a madrasa in the Bajaur Agency
of the FATA, killing 80 of its 83 students, 15 of them below 10
years of age and the majority of the remaining between 10 and 20
years of age. The world has been shocked and many human rights
organisations, including the Human Rights Watch of the US, have
demanded an independent enquiry into the air strike.
7. Even as the Pakistan Air Force has
been ruthlessly mowing down the Balochs and the tribals, the Sri
Lankan Air Force inspired more by the Pakistani than the Indian
model of dealing with internal security problems has resumed its
punitive air strikes in the Eastern and Northern Provinces. Even
though the Sri Lankan Government claims that its planes attack only
military targets, its air strikes are more punitive in order to
intimidate the Tamil population into not supporting the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The working of a hospital in the
Kilinochi area in the North has been affected by bombs being dropped
by the SLAF in its neighbourhood. The Sri Lankan authorities as
they always do - have claimed that their planes were attacking
military targets located near the hospital.
8. The punitive, intimidatory air
strikes had been suspended for a few days after the Government and
the LTTE had agreed to hold peace talks in Geneva on October 28 and
29, 2006. As expected, the talks failed to achieve a de-escalation
of the fighting in Sri Lanka with the Government refusing to
accept the LTTE's contention that the humanitarian issues such as
the re-opening of the A-9 Highway connecting the Jaffna area with
the rest of the country should be tackled first and with the LTTE
refusing to accept the Government's insistence on a time-bound
discussion on substantive political issues before there could be
de-escalation.
9. After the failure of the peace talks
to break the deadlock, the Sri Lankan Air Force lost no time in
resuming its intimidatory air strikes. The hardliners advising Mr.
Rajapakse seem to feel that despite the set-backs suffered by the
security forces after October 11 at the hands of the LTTE, the Armed
Forces still have the upper hand and they can force the LTTE to
accept their terms for a dictated peace if they kept up the military
offensive, including the punitive air strikes.
10. The Government of Mr. Rajapakse, his
advisers and the Armed Forces do not seem to apprehend or realise
that the methods used by them the like of which have been used
only by Pakistan in the then East Pakistan before 1971 and in
Balochistan now could end up by creating an irreparable divide
between the Sinhalese and the Tamils and lessen the prospects of the
two communities living together in the same united country.
11. Let there be no doubt about it. The
LTTE uses ruthless methods. Its present leadership brutally killed
Rajiv Gandhi in 1991. It has been justifiably declared as a
terrorist organisation by India, the US and the European Union
countries. Its Navy poses a threat not only to the security of Sri
Lanka, but also to that of India and this region as a whole. It
should never be allowed to retain its Navy in any peace settlement.
Its reported efforts to acquire an Air Force should be thwarted. The
Sri Lankan Government has every right to act firmly against the LTTE
and safeguard the unity and territorial integrity of the country.
But in doing so, it should take care that the methods used by it do
not degenerate to the depths of the methods used by the LTTE.
12. One of the most important principles
of counter-terrorism is that the State should maintain a moral high
ground even while dealing with terrorists. If it loses it, it
becomes no different from the terrorists. Some of the methods being
used by the Rajapakse Government run the risk of playing into the
hands of the LTTE.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),
Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently,
Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-Mail: itschen36@gmail.com)
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