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New
Delhi, 26 June 2005
Is India in control of its security
postures, or are circumstances of goodwill
propelling the country to greater heights in most
sectors, and lows in some others? The world is
looking to India as the new star on the horizon to
contain China and pushing us ahead with investments
and consumerism and flattering us to do business
with us, and we are drunk with it. At least the
media seems to think so and media today appear to be
the drivers of events. Is there an Indian strategy
to take full advantage of this new factor of good
fortune? We sincerely hope so but cannot see one. An
NSA can do only so much to keep the PM abreast and
on track and also possibly brief the UPA Chairperson
but no more –– and the NSC is supposed to
formulate strategy but since the battle of Panipat
we do not seem to have had one.
We highlight the new Armed Forces
Procurement Procedure manual as an example, as some
of its clauses appear bizzare. The new rules say
multiple bids and standard offsets of 10% will be
required for all purchases of over Rs 300 crores,
and there must be commonality of choice of the three
services in their QRs. In this commonality we see a
push for the MiG 29 M2 choice for the IAF's 126
fighters, as the Navy is already committed to buy 12
MiG 29Ks and 4 Mig 29KUBs for $470m. The Russians
have offered sops and it makes sense as the Su 30
MKI programme is going strong.
Standardisation for cost reduction
and inventory control has been practiced by Armed
Forces the world over but we are still to do so.
There were several reasons for this and partly also
due to India being a ‘buyer’ and not a
‘maker’ of military equipment so far. For
standardisation across the board offers economies of
scale. For example in Russia, the same gas turbine
powers naval and merchant ships, fighter aircraft
and meets civil industry needs. The Kelkar Committee
report had recommended commonality/ standardisation
in equipment procurement for the Armed Forces but so
far the MOD, the Chiefs and the DRDO had disregarded
this vital factor for years. Even communication
frequencies were varied. It is therefore heartening
to see the MoD and particularly the Defence
Secretary espousing the cause of commonality.
Ajai Vikram Singh has tried this in
promotions too but the Navy complied much after the
Army and after objections. Now all officers with 11
years service will be of Commander rank and called
‘Tsunami Commanders’, as their promotions came
as suddenly as the Tsunami and this will take a toll
in the long run. In phase two all will be Brigadiers
when they retire. This is what happens when you do
not have a CDS and the IAS take charge –– since
a Kargil II is unlikely we may have a long wait for
a CDS. The bane is that we may have to wait till
some one needs to be fitted into the CDS slot and
then the decision will come like a bolt form the
blue, like another Tsunami!
These are choices of political
nature, though the three Service Chiefs can get
together for national need and clear one of
themselves or possibly an Army General who can serve
three years for startrers, accept the inter se
change in seniority and come down and force the
Government hand with media help for the decision --
but that is very unlikely. Egos will be hurt even by
this suggestion.
The IAF never wanted a CDS since
ACM PC Lal's time and Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw
got his rank but not the position he was slated for.
Admiral S M Nanda whose son was a Lt Cdr in the Navy
when he left for greener pastures and is now a
business tycoon employing service officers world
wide from London, has a story to tell on this. When
asked if he had any objection to Manekshaw becoming
Field Marshal and CDS he replied from Mumbai,
"As long as you do not remove any stripes from
my shoulders you can give as many as you like to
anyone and do what you like". Lal objected.
Hence again we ask are we in control of our security
postures and does any one know when a CDS will be
appointed to head the huge headless IDS in Kahmir
House and all over Delhi including the Strategic
command in West Delhi in an IAF station. The CDS
proposal was a Kargil war post mortem requirement,
and the war and its lessons are being forgotten.
As regards procurement of military
hardware India could not make up its mind on an AJT
for 20 years, Gorshkov for 5 years, Bofors 155mm
with complicated off sets and ‘No Agents’ clause
for 9 years and now the Scorpene submarine deal for
5 years. However, in BJP times the VIP 5 Embraer
deal went through in a few months, as the VIPs
needed them for peace time travel and the first with
anti-missile defence from USA will be here in
August. There is good in all this except, that costs
go up horrendously for the delays in decision making
and so the poor will have to suffer until that
changes and the Government has less deficit. We
admit the IAF will finally get the best AJT, the
Hawk 132Y and 65 pilots will be trained in UK, which
is total luxury and the first batch were given
certificates by Prince Charles!
The carrier Gorshkov will be good
for Indian Ocean dominance and it looks like we can
afford the massive cost, but let us hope not at the
cost of the other assets needed for the Navy.
Otherwise it will be a case of the King with no
clothes in the Indian Ocean, which has happened when
the Navy is treated to a feast and then goes through
famine, as it is now experiencing. It needs some
second hand ships of the line and MR aircraft
urgently and submarines need to be ordered. Armies
and Air Forces can be raised but Navies have to be
built, and that takes time and planning. Those who
have spent time building houses know the pains. The
155mm 39 cal Bofors 177 saved us in Kargil and now
the new order for self propelled and towed guns if
it goes to Bofors, will give the Indian Army, a very
good, almost best gun in the world.
The Scorpene deal had come in for
criticism for its huge cost overruns because of the
escalation cleared by the MOD under George Fernandes.
Also professionally it is admitted the MESMA
internal breathing steam system is cumbersome in
dived mode, and not yet proven. Pakistan has it in
its second Agusta II being built at Karachi and
reports indicate that it may come a cropper. We do
not want that to happen do we in a professional
Indian Navy? When Scorpene Type 75 was thought of
there was no other choice for a good diesel sumarine
builder. At that time HDW had bought out Kockums the
only other western builder and the BJP Government
and NDA boss George Fernandes and his Samata party
relations with the French for valid reasons, were
good. But now that the HDW has been exonerated by
the Delhi High court of any wrong doing, so like
Bofors they are now eligible to bid. The new
procurement procedure manual requires 3 bids and so
the earlier Scorpene deal stands void in legal terms
in the new procurement code and the Congress has
dealt with HDW before, and they know the systems and
how to build the boats at Mazagon Docks Ltd. So if
the Navy can accept delays (do they have a choice?)
then the Scorpene bidders have work to do all over
again. In India equations can change overnight as we
are more emotional than logical and can connive.
The Indian Navy may have to wait in this deep game
but the 214 export submarine version of the German
NATO 204 offered by the HDW with the fuel cell AIP
is already proven and if that decision is taken for
other reasons it may be good by accident.
We cannot write about the baits
because the new procurement procedure says NO BRIBES
PLEASE in the future and sign an integrity clause.
Yet in defence circles the names of all the
"big in between operators is well known",
and some money always goes into deep pockets. In the
past the Indian Ambassador in Germany had asked in
writing whether the extra 7% paid on the first 4 HDW
boats was to be paid for the 6th and 7th? Now all
have learnt to keep shut and put nothing in writing
and if you know something discuss it at the bar and
if you are in trouble and have contacts in the MOD
and Armed Forces, take a job with the operators. Let
us admit this is common the world over as up to 10 %
of the deal is always allowed to "in betweens
" in arms, shipping and oil deals and in India
it is routine. Look at Tehelka or the latest ban on
Denel where the small $3.9m deal has posed the
question who is Varas Associates, a British
intermediary based in the Isle of Man?
The Indian stock market is keeping
up with the heat in India and it is zooming ahead
just like the temperatures. There are rumours that
Indian parties in collusion with some FII (Indians
again included) are colluding to see the market
perceptions increase upwards and when the time comes
to make the kill, get their profits. Reliance's Anil
Ambani has added to the perception. He has good
supporters –– his Gulf Sream Jet is used by
party leaders.
Finally the Government raised
petrol and diesel prices and there is no let up in
the world's crude oil prices now touching $60 per
barrel. One is reminded of the Philipines where
consumerism has kept the country moving along and
corruption is rampant so the bureaucrats,
politicians and their cronies keep in good fettle
but the country has never raised the quality of life
of its people. The common folk in Philipines are
wonderful people, like Indians but they do not have
a caste system so there is a little more happiness.
The Philipines' armed forces are a bunch of time
passers.
India hopes to control the Indian
Ocean and safeguard it but in the neighbourhood its
Nepal policy is going adrift. This does not augur
well for its control and strategy. We have 55
battalions of Gorkhas. With India and the US and
Britain putting a brake on the supply of weapons to
Nepal till democracy is restored they have played
the Pakistan and China card and put out a global
tender. This will introduce a wider element to the
situation by raising the moot point whether any of
these three countries, particularly India, will
allow the delivery of weaponry to take place and
what steps will be employed to prevent it.
India has a bilateral arrangement
with Nepal for the supply of weaponry for the Royal
Nepal Army and the police, with an element of
exclusiveness built into it. Some years ago when a
similar situation arose and Nepal decided to import
weapons from China it created a piquant situation
especially since the consignment included
anti-aircraft weapons which could only have been
used against the Indian Air Force and the air wing
of the Indian Army. This time around Pakistan has
already made known its intention to fish in troubled
waters. It has already made known its willingness to
supply weaponry to Nepal. It remains to be seen
which companies submit tenders in response to the
Nepalese Home Ministry’s notice issued in mid-May.
Pakistan would want to respond to
Kathmandu’s global arms tender. It has long used
Nepalese soil for subversive activity against India.
Pakistan’s ISI has perfected the use of airlines
for smuggling of drugs, counterfeit currency and the
movement of Kashmiri terrorists, the Jehadis and the
Khalistanis into India and also their safe
evacuation after an operation was executed. This is
best highlighted by the hijack flight IC-814 to
Kandahar (from Kathmandu during NDA regime) to
secure the release of three Jaish-e-Mohammad
terrorists languishing in Indian jails. The Babbar
Khalsa activists who were involved in the recent
cinema hall blasts in Delhi were also nabbed as they
were fleeing to Nepal.
The LTTE has a Navy of sorts and is
getting a few planes and setting up an airfield and
all India is doing is studying Sri Lanka's needs for
radars and air defence. Hence the question we pose
‘are we in control of our security and defence
postures?’
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