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New
Delhi, 04 April 2002
The
CIDS Lt Gen P S Joshi and his team including Rear Admiral Rocky
Chopra and others are in USA and will meet the Pentagon people where
the India–USA–Pakistan situation will no doubt be discussed.
They will also meet Andrew Marshal. The Americans will get a first
hand account of the forthcoming Indian CDS structure and how our top
brass function.
USA
has also cleared some items like the GE Engines and Raytheon WLRs
and now the difficult part of drawing up contracts will begin, which
can be long drawn out as India's MOD has little experience in
dealing with American arms’ business. The Defence Procurement
Board is raw and has yet to cut its teeth. The pushes and pulls will
be severe but Indians are good at it so we wish the new System
‘God Speed’.
India's
top leadership has doggedly kept the Indian Army mobilised now for
three long months and that in the long term will tell on morale. The
uniformed view is abundant on this that such protracted action,
despite the Naval Band entertaining them on the borders, can be
counter productive. However the average age of India's CCS is 71 and
the youngest –– former Major
Jaswant Singh is 67. The NSA Brajesh Misra who saw some
onslaught by RSS on him has been low key and silent and he too is in
his 70s while the others are past 75.
So
IDC are concerned. The Media had reported that mobilisation will
help ruin Pakistan's economy, but no such thing seems to have
happened. Pakistan has increased its reserves to $3.5 billion,
growth rate is up to 3.2% and the debt has reduced. This better
economic state has come about due to US support.
Now
Musharraf is toying with the idea of a referendum in May and then
elections in October Pakistan style. By this he will be able to
profess Democracy. Former IMF hand the Finanace Minister of Pakistan
Shaukat Aziz has done an admirable job. It is also well known that
Musharraf is doing a good job under the circumstances and making all
efforts to convince the world that Kashmir is an indigenous
struggle.
Israel's
pressure on Palestine President Arafat does help him to cohere the
Muslim world, which is still divided. At this juncture Ambassador
Blackwill met Home Minister Advani and discussed India–Pakistan
relations just when the militants in Kashmir have been active ––
and the world as Mohan Guruswamy puts it, is now concerned about
Hindu militancy bordering on terrorism. IDC see Narendra Modi having
to go, as every media report connects him with the veiled hand of
the RSS.
The
times are interesting. Hence IDC append this report in
the NEW YORK TIMES that shows that Pakistan is fully cooperating
with the US in going after the Al Qaeda terrorists hiding in
Pakistani territory. An IDC fan sent it to us and it is a must
‘read’ for Indians.
The
question is: how far can Musharraf go in helping the US? IDC agree
Musharraf is playing his cards pretty well. We think he will go
quite far in cultivating the US, if he succeeds in winning the
Pakistani people's endorsement at the likely referendum next month
and thereby his legitimacy as the Ruler.
India
needs to take these facts into account in shaping its foreign
policy. The further implications for India and how India responds to
the situation, keeping in view Musharraf’s interview with Malini
Parthasarathy (reported in THE HINDU of April 1, 2002) are questions
that need to be addressed.
New
York Times, April 1, 2002
Pakistan's
Bold Alliance: U.S. Ties Holding Firm
By
Raymond Bonner
News
Analysis
ISLAMABAD,
Pakistan, March 31 - President Bush has said repeatedly that in
waging war on terrorism, the United States will work with countries
that want to cooperate, but is prepared to act on its own.
The
Pakistani government has demonstrated how firmly it is in the camp
of cooperation, most lately in allowing the F.B.I. and C.I.A. to
conduct a raid with Pakistani police here last week that rounded up
more than 30 men with suspected links to Al Qaeda. The raid also
demonstrated how valuable that cooperation can be: one of those
apprehended, Abu Zubaydah, is suspected of being a top lieutenant of
Osama bin Laden.
Today,
Pakistani officials said the men had been turned over to the United
States.
That
action will surely bring some protest from nationalists and
Islamists. But defying predictions that there would be huge street
protests like those that roiled tribal areas in the days after the
United States began bombing Afghanistan, most protests have been
moderate, suggesting that the Pakistani leader, Gen. Pervez
Musharraf, has some political space to carry out his pro-American,
antiterrorism policies.
"In
general, his policies of supporting the campaign against terrorism
have not been challenged, except by religious groups," said a
senior Western diplomat. The mainstream political parties
"recognize he has handled the situation well," he said,
"but there are limits to this support."
Perhaps
recognizing those limits, General Musharraf has not given the Bush
administration everything it wants. On Saturday evening, he made
that clear once again.
In
spite of pressure from Washington, he told a meeting of Pakistani
newspaper editors that he would not hand over Ahmed Omar Sheikh, the
chief suspect in the murder of the American journalist Daniel Pearl.
Mr. Sheikh has been indicted in the United States, which fervently
wants his extradition. But the case is sensitive to Pakistan.
"I
am going to hold his trial inside the country and punish him for the
crime he has committed in the country," General Musharraf said.
Few
countries have done as much for Washington in the war. Pakistan's
willingness to take on strident nationalists and Islamic extremists
is in marked contrast to Indonesia, for instance, also a Muslim
country, but one whose president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, would be
most unlikely to ever permit the F.B.I. to carry out a joint raid
like the one here. Today, senior officials in Indonesia were again
quoted as saying they had no evidence that a radical cleric, Abu
Bakar Bashir, had been involved in terrorist activities, a
conclusion at odds with that reached by other countries in the
region, notably Singapore.
The
Bush administration has recognized the contributions of General
Musharraf, inviting him to Washington and commending his courage.
But
the administration has been slow to deliver on promises of police
assistance, and has not removed duties and quotas on Pakistani
textiles, a move that would give a vital lift to the economy of this
impoverished country.
Without
some tangible benefits like those, there is a question of how long
the Musharraf government can continue to mobilize public opinion
behind its antiterrorism policies.
Washington
has also at times taken actions that seem to undercut General
Musharraf. Ten days ago, for example, it ordered all dependents of
embassy employees to leave the country, out of concerns about
security. "This is certainly not a good sign," said the
interior minister, Moinhuddin Haider said,. "If everybody
starts packing up and going home, it doesn't make a very good
impression," he added. "We have to show some
courage."
That
General Musharraf has survived this close alliance is a lesson that
Washington hopes other leaders can learn, particularly President
Megawati in Indonesia.
Most
recently there has been a noticeable absence of protest in Pakistan
over the role of agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation in
the raid. No major newspapers have editorialized against it, and
General Musharraf's mainstream political opponents have not
criticized it.
There
is certainly a radical element opposed to General Musharraf's
policies. It is loud and violent and it has allies among Pakistan's
military and intelligence corps. But for the moment the key military
officers have stayed in line, and the Islamic political parties and
radical leaders have failed to turn out anything but paltry crowds
for anti-Musharraf or anti-American rallies.
This
is not to deny the existence of a deep current of anti-Americanism
in this Muslim country of 140 million. The hostile sentiment arises
not only because of America's policy in Israel, but much closer to
home because of American policies in the region.
After
the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the United States arrived in
force, training, arming and equipping guerrilla groups, including
the mujahedeen. When that war was over, the United States basically
abandoned the region. "Pakistan was left with drugs and
Kalashnikovs," a Western diplomat said here. "Pakistan
felt betrayed."
In
now siding with the United States, General Musharraf and his
advisers have not erased this resentment, but in the main,
Pakistanis appear to put national interest over past grudges.
Religious extremism and sectarian violence have rent this nation.
"We
have taken a very strong stand, because we believe that to have
security in Pakistan we cannot have extremism here," said Mr.
Haider, the interior minister.
It
is not a risk-free policy, as Mr. Haider knows personally. His older
brother was assassinated in Karachi last December. That attack was
widely seen here as a retaliation against the government's policy of
siding with the United States and cracking down on extremist groups
in Pakistan.
But
the government vows to carry on. "Our resolve to continue this
policy remains firm and strong, because it is good for
Pakistan," Mr. Haider said.
Still,
he would like to see a little more cooperation from the United
States. The Musharraf government has given Washington a list of what
it needs for its war against terrorists, starting with simple things
like computers and printers for the provincial police, who are in
the front line.
The
government has also asked the United States to install a computer
system for the immigration service at the country's 18 land, air and
sea ports of entry. Mr. Haider said that only the airport in
Islamabad had a computerized system. He said he thought the new
equipment would arrive within two to three months, but American
officials are now saying that it would be at least a year before
everything was delivered.
Ticking
off the other help that Pakistan would like from its more powerful
partner in the war on terrorism, Mr. Haider referred to lifting the
duties on textiles, but also called for foreign investment and
relief from the country's $38 billion debt. "We need help
quickly," he said. "These are very critical times."
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