India’s economy is
on a roll and rising, tax collections are up 38%, India’s foreign
policy is paying off and if the nuclear deal with USA comes through
it will give a boost to
India’s
image as a non NPT signatory but with NPT privileges. Dr Manmohan
Singh, is an accomplished economist and acknowledged as the Finance
Minister who deftly averted India’s default on its external debt in
1991, and set
India
on a middle path of economic growth and implemented a dual rate of
conversion of foreign exchange. There were no dearth of doubting
Thomases, yet it worked and it was soon acknowledged by the world’s
financial markets that ‘India’s economy was out of the woods’.
It was Dr Singh assisted by Montek Alhuwalia presently Vice
Chairman of the Planning Commission, and a team of economists that
propelled
India on its present path of liberalisation. He admitted he had
changed his approach from being a Fabian economist to a realist
modern day believer in globalisation, but with a heart for the poor,
groping for a middle path. He has little experience of dealing with
military issues of the command and control of India's mighty machine
and has left it to Pranab Mukherjee and NSA MK Narayanan. One
wonders if the 'Rules of Engagement' have been drawn up to deal with
contingencies as that is the weak point in India and the Special
Powers Act (Armed Forces) even in peace is under question. All three
services are independent and their Chiefs even more so. Therein lies
the catch.
In 1991,
Singapore was
witness to the beginnings of Manmohan’s quest to learn about
Singapore's defence. Dr Singh arrived from Bangkok with Montek after
attending the Paris Club meeting where he successfully secured a $3b
loan, to bail India out. There were of course IMF conditions
attached, and PM Narasimha Rao was informed of the details in a
coded dispatch sent by telex from the Singapore Mission. Montek
Ahluwalia fluently dictated the note in confidence in two full-scale
pages in the DA’s office.
A large team of bankers, industrialists, economists and civil
servants including bright secretaries like N K Singh who later
worked in PMO for PM Vajpayee, Geetakrishnan in charge of the power
ministry now an energy consultant, and economist Deepak Nayyar later
Chancellor of Delhi University, had flown in from Delhi with the
then Commerce Minister P Chidambaram. The mission was to garner
funds, loans and investments in power projects including Enron as
Foreign Direct Investments. In those days the hurdles for FDI were
many and yet Dr Singh succeeded in his quest, and liaison duties to
the two Ministers and large team were made easy. Dr Singh was
undemanding and unassuming, and the two Ministers had a delightful
husband-wife economists’ team as their personal Secretaries, who
coordinated excellently and confidently took decisions on their
behalf on routine matters. There was good command and control. Dr
Singh’s secretary was his student at D
school of
Economics, and both husband and wife team got foreign assignments as
their well deserved rewards.
Dr Manmohan Singh with some free time waiting for Mr
Chidambaram to arrive surprisingly took great interest in the
briefing given to him on Singapore’s large 750,000 strong reserve
military and Asean’s security concerns, which were many. When he was
told details of Singapore’s defence budget of $ 2.8 bill in 1991,
which was almost one third of India’s, for a mere 2.5m people and
the 625 sq miles island state he posed many questions. The High
Commissioner had to explain how the budget was used for
Singapore’s concept
of ‘Total Defence’, whose architects were Lee Kuan Yew, Goh King
Swee and Rajaratnam.
Later Aviation Minister late Mahdav Rao Scindia, and Defence
Minister Sharad Pawar also showed interest during security briefings
and today the India–Singapore defence relations are the closest. It
may be relevant to mention on another occasion, around the same time
during his three hour stopover, a similar briefing was arranged for
the then Foreign Minister of State Natwar Singh, at a Changi airport
VIP suite, when he was transiting to
Indonesia. He cut
the briefing short to watch Wimbledon. The High Commission had
requested for a large screen to be provided for Natwar as tennis was
his passion, though presently he is very much in focus for his
involvement in the oil for food scam and had to relinquish his
Foreign Minister berth.
Dr Manmohan Singh is once again in search for that middle
path antidote to globalisation, and all his energies are focused on
this. The RM and PM must appreciate, that it is
India's higher
Defence Management and control during emergencies and war that needs
immediate attention. Art 52 stipulates that Defence is to be managed
by Cabinet control and theoretically the PM has to get Cabinet
approval for almost any decision in an emergency. This is not
possible in today's scenario where speed of decision making is of
the essence. During the Kargil war ACM Tipnis has bared in his book
that not one of the Chiefs knew whom to turn to as there was no
system. The NSA Brajesh Misra –– who was an Adviser and had no
Defence responsibility except to advise on security –– de facto
became a decision maker as did the then Foreign Minister Jaswant
Singh, whom the Chiefs looked up to as their NDA senior. Fourteen
days and many lives were lost because of lack of command and
control.
In Tipnis's outburst on our site there is no mention of the
Defence Secretary being consulted before
24th May 1998,
possibly as he was considered junior to the Chiefs. India has no
C-in-C, no CDS , no Joint Operational Commands except the Andamans
and as a new Defence Minister has taken over he should immediately
look into this matter. Even in Japan which has a pacifist
Constitution, the PM is nominated as the C-in-C in the Constitution
and permitted to take decisions but mandated to get it ratified by
the Cabinet as soon as possible thereafter. Such a clause must be
included so that the PM feels involved, and the Chiefs must have
access to the PM if needed and the NSA's role vis a vis the Chiefs
must be specified in writing.
During the Tsunami disaster no one was able to give
clearance to CNS Admiral Arun Prakash who had planned to sail all
operational ships, as it was a Sunday, save NSA J N Dixit who was
close to PM and said he would get the clearance. The higher Defence
Management of the country needs to be codified as the nuclear
deterrent is also involved, and with
Iraq
and Afghanistan in a quagmire, Bangladesh in uncertainity, Sri Lanka
in a low intensity war with use of air power, we foresee some sudden
unexpected developments which may arise needing speedy military
decisions by India. This is paramount and we welcome comments.
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