|
New
Delhi, 22 March 2002
The
end of the cold war with the break up of Soviet Union a decade back and
launching of war on terror by US in October last year, have heightened
the gap between the interests and capabilities of USA and its allies
in Europe. In a way it is natural and logical provided the European
Union accepts a second rate status and adjusts to it. The US in its
strategic review has already indicated its focus having shifted from
Europe to Asia both in terms of economic and military interaction.
Hence NATO as an organization having lost its raison d’etre ––
namely defence against communism (Soviet Union) –– has to
undergo some radical changes and become more ‘Europeanised’ vis-à-vis
USA –– rather than vent feelings like, “we refuse to be
treated like ‘satellite’ states.”
Military
Imbalances
The
imbalance begins with military power. The United States is getting
stronger, relative to Europe. It's like a marriage that has gotten
out of sync –– with one partner feeling left behind as the other
becomes more successful. The point can be demonstrated by comparing
the US special forces in Afghanistan with the British SAS. Man for
man, the British are every bit the equal of their American
counterparts. But the SAS simply cannot operate as a
force-multiplier the way American special forces can. They cannot
call in Predator unmanned aircraft because the British have none.
They cannot add their on-the-ground knowledge to information
provided by satellite and tactical signals intelligence because the
British lack these. They cannot create targeting solutions with
airborne-targeting systems because those too are absent from the
British inventory. And the British are the very best of the allies
in terms of modern capabilities.
Lack
of Modernisation
A
country as rich as Germany is still unable to deliver more than a
third of the troops it promised for peacekeeping in Kabul, on
schedule, because it must rent Russian or Ukrainian transport planes
on the commercial market. One country, which NATO officials refused
to identify, discussed moving troops to Kabul by railroad. The
European troop transport plane, the A-400 M, a variant of the
European-owned Airbus, is stuck in a financing dispute in Germany
and may take 8 to 10 years to be delivered.
This
marginalisation due to lack of modernisation has come about mainly
due to the reluctance of European nations to spend adequately on
defence and having rested on American oars for half a century. In
current prices, the defence budgets of the European NATO nations
have declined from an aggregate of $184 billion in 1995 to
approximately $159 billion in 2001. Compared to this the US budget
is $379 billion with a projected increase of $120 billion over the
next five years. That figure exceeds the total military budgets of
the world's next 14 biggest defence spenders put together. Some
European countries –– notably Britain and France –– have
worked to modernize their armies and make them more mobile. Germany
too, is finally engaged in reform, even as 10,000 German troops help
keep the peace in the Balkans and Afghanistan. The real problem is
that only 1.5% of Germany's GDP goes to the military, half the
proportion allotted by the United States. Europe spends less than
half of US budget on the military but on average only about $7,000
per soldier –– compared with $28,000 per American soldier i.e.
one-fourth –– on research and development.
Asian
Predominance
This
state of affairs can only marginally improve and Europe has to come
to terms with the 21st Century being that of Asia. Even
in its role of an ally, the fact is, the mercurial Europeans aren't
even America's key diplomatic allies anymore. Since Sept 11, that
role has been usurped by Russia's President, Vladimir Putin. No
doubt, Europeans have been fighting terrorism for decades. The
British coped with IRA bombs exploding in the centre of London; the
French lived with bombs in the Metro and assassins in the streets;
the Italians lived with Red Brigades that blew up train stations;
the Spaniards continue to face regular bombings by Basque
terrorists. But living with terrorism is quite different from fighting it in this era of galloping technology. There are millions
of Muslims living in France, Britain, Germany and other European
countries. As America’s war on terror continues unabated, this
Muslim presence may become menacing for them. Thus Europe has no
option but to support the US in its pursuits.
The
Way Ahead?
Taking
all factors into account, IDC find the following politco-military
scenario/role for Europe in the coming decade:
1.
America and Europe work together on intelligence operations
and police work even if it means that the Americans fight and the
Europeans clean up and keep the peace. This will be the most
economical option.
2.
Europeans develop an effective working relationship with Russia with a
common security system for the European continent and an allied role
with USA. This will mean transforming NATO altogether.
3.
Build a
multinational Allied Rapid Reaction Force of a few divisions with
the command structure, communications and strategic lift
capabilities required of an Expeditionary Force. This force should
be equipped with precision-guided weapons like cruise missiles and
smart bombs. A Rand Corporation study suggests this could be
achieved by spending some $25 to $56 billion more in the next decade.
Back
to Top
Disclaimer
Copyright
|