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New
Delhi, 04 April 2002
The
Media is doing the rounds on China and Indians are gloating!
China
–– The Myths
The
world's biggest mystery today is the Chinese economy. On the surface
it appears to have survived the Far East's economic turbulence and
appears to be expanding at the rate of 8% a year. Meanwhile, Japan's
economy contracted and the Nikkei declined. The purported reason for
this is that Japan's banking system is technically bankrupt, with
$266 billion in non-performing loans. But China's banking system is
rumoured to be in a similar state, having kept afloat countless
inefficient state-owned businesses with loans that cannot possibly
be repaid. A $300 billion figure has been mentioned, though the true
total, concealed by Communist accounting, cannot be known. How,
then, does China continue to expand –– if it really does? An
expert has said that until Japan writes off its BAD DEBTS it cannot
progress. In India too we see that banks like ICICI, IDBI and some
others have written off bad debts.
Foreign
Investment
A
recent account in “The China Dream” by Joe Studwell (Atlantic
Monthly Press, $27) claims that $300 billion has been swallowed by
China in the last ten years alone. The reason Western banks and
businesses are willing to invest so heavily in this Communist state,
despite their dreadful experiences in the former Soviet Union, is
that they are mesmerized by the magic phrase "a market of a
billion consumers" –– the largest market in world history.
But all the evidence, historical and actual, shows this market to be
a mirage. Since Roman times China has tended to swallow the West's
gold, selling silks and other luxury consumer goods but buying
virtually nothing in return. China's is an ancient civilization, and
it retains some primitive economic notions. The Chinese believe that
it is a sign of economic strength to sell vast quantities of goods
to foreign buyers, while buying few in return –– in theory
that’s healthy world trade which all cannot and should not follow.
The
media has another view:
China,
at the beginning of the 21st Century, appears to be the hare. But
what of the tortoise? ––India. India appears to have moved
extremely slowly in its nearly 60 years of independence. But it is
sound on fundamentals. It has kept its working democracy; maintained
the rule of law; and has, in recent years, scrapped many of the
socialist controls that held its economy back. India's people enjoy
freedom of speech, assembly and worship, and India has a free press
–– all rights that China lacks. India is a natural ally of the
US in its war against terrorism. India's population is virtually as
big as China's and will soon surpass it.
Once
again articles are appearing in the media and a noteworthy one on
Rediff website was that China was in a bit of a mess. This is
wishful thinking, so we decided to take a closer look at
INDIA–CHINA.
China
–– The Realities
For
most Indians, China has remained an enigma and Indian diplomats
consciously urged and strived to see that not many Indians visited
China from the 60s to the 80s. It was the Enemy and even George
Fernandes alluded to it in 1998, calling China as threat No 1, which
he later retracted. China was kept veiled and even if one went to
China the Embassy told you to restrict your movements.
China
is still on the negative list for Defence business and if they bid
for a civil project or give business to an Indian software firm we
are up in arms. RM keeps objecting to China supplying nuclear help
and arms to Pakistan. Now Gwadar port is being developed with some $
200 million –– like the Russians helped us to develop
Vishakapatnam –– yet we are angry.
Media
reported that George Fernandes had been invited to visit China,
close on the heels of the visit of Jaswant Singh, who was promised
enhanced business. The Chinese would have tried to read his mind,
which is what they were unable to fathom otherwise about Indian
policy. Last time the Chinese dignitary Zhu Rongji came visiting
Delhi, George was conveniently absent as the media put it. Jaswant
Singh and the Chinese Vice Premier Quin Quichen have stated that the
Border problem will be solved soon as maps of the middle sector have
been exchanged. IDC wonder what if at all China has conceded! The
Western sector maps will follow and then Eastern and IDC perceives a
status quo in the main.
IDC
is convinced and worried that India would have to accept the LAC as
the international border with very minor modifications as China has
been clever, single minded and has not given up an inch and knows
India does not have cogent thinking on what it wants and is beset
with other more demanding problems.
The
same was the case in 1962 and no one believed China was serious and
it gave the Indian Army a drubbing, which was a politco-military
failure. Again today Indians do not believe China is well ahead. In
the cocktail circuits Indian diplomats and media keep repeating that
China is doing well outwardly but is in a mess and will collapse
some day as private ownership is still denied. Well, private
ownership and democracy has given us happiness but not great GDP
growth or stability and there lies the difference.
Chinese
Strengths
China
today has the economic, military and diplomatic means to get a
better border deal vis a vis India. A recent book by Wignall if true
in its facts highlights the differences between the Indian Military
and the Ministry of External Affairs in thinking and knowledge of
the border in the late 50s. Today too there is little change ––
in that the Military has no clout in policy making and attends
various meetings as an observer only and the way Generals are being
promoted, there is no continuity. We will now have a CDS with no
teeth, as he will be quite old too.
China
on the other hand has decided on youthful leadership, dedicated
experts with years of experience and a strategy with Military
involvement to deal with the McMahon Line by repudiating it. Aksai
Chin they say was always Chinese and they can prove it by maps and
Chinese names and part of it had already been gifted away by
Pakistan and Chinese have built roads there. Tibet they say was de
facto agreed by Nehru to be theirs –– when China sent a telegram
in the 50s and now Wignall’s book tells us more on the subject.
The
Military Intelligence he claims sent him on a mission in the 50s.
Another book titled ‘India’s China War’ from OUP, which was
banned in India, tells us some home truths about the blunders of the
India–China war, which are now proved.
Wignall
in his book says while 'official' Indian history tells us that
Chinese buildings in the Aksai Chin area were discovered in 1958,
when an Indian patrol was arrested by the Chinese People's
Liberation Army, for trespassing in Indian territory! The matter
only became public in 1959 when it was raised in the Lok Sabha.
If
one accepts Wignall's version, which is corroborated by several
other facts, the Government of India kept the fact of the occupation
of a part of Jammu and Kashmir State a secret for four/five years.
In 1959, in Parliament, Nehru first dismissed the whole affair thus
–– why 'fight for a few rocks?' or for a place ‘without a
blade of grass’?' But later he had to admit the blunder.
“Our
illustrious Prime Minister Nehru, who is so busy on the world stage
telling the rest of mankind how to live, has too little time to
attend to the security of his own country. Your material was shown
to Nehru by one of our senior officers, who plugged hard. He was
criticised by Krishna Menon in Nehru's presence for 'lapping up
American CIA agent-provocateur propaganda’. Menon has completely
suppressed your information.” 'So it was all for nothing?' I [Wignall]
asked. 'Perhaps not,' Singh [Wignall's
contact in the army]
responded. “We will keep working away at Nehru. Some day he must
see the light, and realise the threat Communist Chinese occupation
of Tibet poses for India.”
Indeed,
it would take a few more years for the Indian prime minister to see
the light. This sad incident is not complete without mentioning that
Wignall's contact in Military Intelligence was killed at Sela Pass
when the Chinese attacked India in 1962. It also perhaps explains
why, when Timmy, (as General Thimayya was known by his junior
officers), was forced to retire in 1961, he declared in his
valedictory address to the Indian Army officer corps
'I hope
I am not leaving you as cannon fodder for the Chinese Communists.'
Chinese
Economic Growth
China
today is an economic power and its growth model has beaten the logic
of capitalism for making money and communism for governance. It has
therefore confused the average thinking Indian who wonders how China
with all its problems and confusion has made it and become a rich
country with higher standards of literacy, health and less poverty
than India, despite a huge population.
According
to George Fernandes’ admission at the Navy Foundation Seminar on
INDIA’s SECURITY, China now has a per capita income double that of
India, exports of over $294 billion and reserves of over $400
billion. Indians are all so mystified by the functioning of China
with its gigantic bureaucracy led by a clutch of leaders of the
Politburo who now behave like elitists in their dress, diplomacy and
confidence –– even with USA. Therefore it is surprising for
Indians to see how a corrupt structure has produced results, which
are unbelievable, because corruption has eaten away India’s
wealth.
Chinese
Leadership
The
answers are very simple and lie in the Chinese leadership and how
the Chinese logic in the main has used the means at their disposal
to ensure success. They are a proud race and practical. Indians are
more philosophical and as Admiral Shekhawat at the Naval seminar
said –– we do not have the will to be great. That will take
time.
To
understand China one has to understand the actions of President
Jiang Zemin post the Mao Zedong era –– in supporting the
liberalisation of its economy in a controlled manner, from Communism
in the late 70s. He actually shaped China on to a path of
liberalisation and Chinese Military power is not far behind and
Indians refuse to believe it. Indian economic thinking is still
socialist and military thinking steeped in World War II tactics,
with accent on the fine manpower the Army has. A recent example is
that of the Kargil war and now Mobilisation, where the Army has laid
thousands of mines.
President
Jiang’s rise to power was a defining period for China –– he
was able to do a deft balancing act of economic liberalisation and
authoritarian rule permitting the basic social freedoms to the young
of China and yet controlling any dissidence with harsh measures. The
VHP and Bajrang Dal and terrorism would all have been treated
differently in China ––
like the Falungong. If one is to appreciate that the route followed
did ensure phenomenal success it was because of Leadership and
vision.
China
had a spiritual tradition –– whether it was Confucianism,
Buddhism or Taoism –– and the spirit of the past always returns
searching for a deeper slogan than Deng Xiaoping's motto 'To become
rich is glorious’.
India
has solely lacked leadership in the practical sense or the will to
be serious. Even today the nation that was built up on secularism is
seeing itself in the hands of the few who do not believe in it.
Chinese
Military Strength
It
is good to remind the Indian public that everything is still not
great between India and China. IDC now give snippets of China’s
military progress. We have already shown the J 10 plane. They have
XIA class nuclear submarines with crude ICBM launching capability
and SSNs by somehow obtaining foreign technology ––
aping/reverse engineering systems. They sent Chinese scientists
abroad in various garbs and got them back. We are still struggling
with the LCA and the ATV. Chinese have bought out Sovernmenny
destroyers, Su 27s, SU 30s and latest missiles from Russia and their
Nuclear force is in place. They are now carrying out exercises with
the Americans to hone tactics and write out doctrines. We are still
to get our CDS structure to hone the three Services. Hence China
cannot be wished away as it is heading to become a super power.
Here
are some examples of their long strides of progress:
Armed
Forces
The
Armed Forces of China are on a Modernisation spree. The Air Force is
inducting the J-10 (J stands for Jangeui meaning ‘fighter’ in
Chinese) and IDC have done a story on it. Navy is well ahead and now
the Army is improving communications, firepower and command and
control and has exercised with US Forces.
China
in Space
In
space China is well ahead. They are preparing for intensified space
missions and international satellite launch services by developing a
new family of powerful launch vehicles. Such carrier rockets will be
used to launch a 20-ton, permanently manned space station. Launch
capacity for the world's primary rockets exceeds 20 tons for
near-earth orbits and ranges up to 7 tons for geo-stationary
transfer orbits while for Chinese rockets, the figures stand at 9.2
tons and 5.1 tons respectively. China has tested two unmanned
experimental space flights since 1999 to provide ground for sending
astronauts into space. The new launchers will be built on a modular
design based on three models of core stages –– 2.25 metres, 3.35
metres and 5 metres in diameter –– powered by liquid hydrogen,
liquid oxygen and refined kerosene, which produces powerful
propulsion and leaves no pollution or poison.
Civil
Aviation
In
modernisation of aviation China is on the march being the largest
buyer of planes in the world –– some 700 in the coming decade
and hence need for their safety. An advanced Raytheon B-3583 test
plane landed in China to help test safety and reliability at the
country's airports. The plane's full wingspan reaches 17.3 meters
and the length of the fuselage is 14.18 meters. It is equipped with
two turboprop engines and the most advanced test facilities on
board. The aircraft is mainly responsible for testing the
navigation, radar and telecommunication systems in domestic
airports. They will guarantee the safety of flights taking-off and
landing. The new plane brings China's total test aircraft to seven.
China–Pakistan
Pakistan
and its old ally China recently signed
a memorandum of understanding on military cooperation and
collaboration in the defence production sector. The signing ceremony
was held during a visit by a Chinese delegation headed by General
Xiong Guangkai, deputy chief of general staff of the People's
Liberation Army. Xiong held talks on bilateral defence issues and
the regional situation with Pakistani Secretary for Defence retired
Lieut General Hamid Nawaz Khan. Xiong also met top army and air
force officials to discuss regional geo-politics and defence
matters. He also met President Pervez Musharraf. Islamabad and
Beijing are old allies, with Pakistani leaders referring to China as
the country's "most reliable and trusted friend."
Pakistani leaders have stressed that growing ties with Washington in
the US-led war on terrorism have not affected Islamabad's old
friendship with Beijing. Now Gwadar is being developed into a modern
naval port.
China–Myanmar
China
and Myanmar have vowed to cooperate more closely in anti-drugs
operations along their borders at a bilateral meeting on the issue
recently in the capital of southwest China's border province of
Yunan. China has developed substantial influence over the rulers in
Rangoon and a major role for them in Myanmar cannot be ruled out.
China–Taiwan
The
present posture of China towards Taiwan is outwardly warlike but
will become one of cooperation over time. China has approved two
Taiwan banks to set up offices in China for the first time. Once the
synergy of Taiwan’s finances and technological prowess is meshed
with China, in the next decade the Chinese will certainly be a super
power ad an economic storehouse
Conclusion
Nehru
did not want to fight over a few rocks where not a blade of grass
grew and our present Leaders have never put out a white paper on the
subject before the nation, so IDC offers this analysis to tell
Indians that China has moved ahead. We need to accept this fact and
work out our strategies. In
summary India has to get its act together vis-à-vis China.
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