INDIA
DEFENCE CONSULTANTS
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WHAT'S
HOT? –– ANALYSIS OF RECENT HAPPENINGS |
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INDIA–US–PAKISTAN ISSUES HOTTING UP An IDC Analysis
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New
Delhi, 18 December 2005 As
the cold weather hits both USA and India there is a thaw in the
US–India nuclear deal that PM Manmohan Singh signed in a hurry on
18 July. Media reported that it was hammered out overnight and so it
appears that this deal was again a case of shoddy work Indian style
of "Chale Ga" variety, which means "it will do"
–– and is the hall mark of post colonial Indians who were and
are still in awe of the West. It
was because we lacked confidence and resources and were greedy. We
are glad this malaise is being removed by example, by a more
confident younger generation and people like Narayan Murthy, Premji
and Kamal Nath by doing deep homework and not adopting the "Chalta
Hai" attitude. Friedman's book ‘The Earth is Flat’ explains
it all. Non-military and non-nuclear individuals brokered the
nuclear deal and as K Subrahmanyam keeps telling us there are
very few who understand nuclear issues –– even the BJP botched
the post 1998 nuclear tests impact by making irresponsible statements.
It
took India some two years to get recognition for what we had
managed and this nuclear deal is something that will provide India
energy and acceptance as a nuclear power. It must be made to work
even if it is a Catch 22 situation of India not knowing who is to do
what first. It appears the PM is under tremendous pressure with the
Natwar matter, black money stories surfacing every day and his own
Cabinet people ganging up and the Communist alliance raising issues
which are irrelevant and make governance difficult. To top it all he
has to consult Madam Sonia on almost every issue of import. The
lucky part is that the BJP are in disarray and they have Uma Bharati
to contend with. Hence
the PM stated in Parliament that it was USA's duty to get their part
of the deal on the nuclear pact through first, putting the ball in
USA's court and added that India would decide which nuclear
facilities it will put under supervision. This will put
Bush in a jam and he has headaches enough but he and Condelezza Rice
will learn about the ‘Argumentative Indian’ soon and before he
visits India in Feb. Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's speech in
October claimed that it was USA that was go first and get US`
clearance. This
issue will boil up and is bound to have repercussions on India's
Military as the Defence Minister has strangely made statements
that the MOD has not received offers of the two P 3C Orions as
we have confirmed news of the offer which the Navy is considering.
Then he has gone on to give details of the 126 Fighters in the
race for the IAF and the F-16 seems to be missing. These issues
could boil up. Concurrently
a three day 10th meeting of the Indo-US Army Executive Steering
Group began at Lucknow –– a historical city known for its
Nawabs and the British Raj –– on 13th at Headquarters Central
Command. The US side was led by Lt Gen M Brown III, commanding
general, United States Army Pacific, co-chair Indo-US Army ESG met and
the Indian counterpart Lt Gen Madan Gopal, Director General Military
Operations, co-chair Indo–US Army ESG. Indo–US defence
cooperation has made good progress in areas of expert exchanges,
visits, seminars/courses as well as joint combined exercises but no
major orders have taken place and no announcement on the USS Trenton
is coming forth, though Navy had cleared it for acquisition with
Seahawk helicopters. The statements of the Defence Minister in
Parliament, which are very critical pointers to what seems to be MOD
thinking are posted. In any case the RM is known to make statements
and retract later as he did in the case of the Sagarika project at
Aero India and then about the ATV matter which he spoke about in
Russia. Defence
Minister Pranab Mukherjee Wednesday said… “the United States had
indicated the availability of two PC-3 Maritime Patrol Aircraft
(Orion) on lease, but no formal offer had been received by India in
this regard. A decision in the matter can only be taken after a
detailed offer is received from the US and the the Ministry of
Defense had examined it,” he said in a written reply in Rajya
Sabha. He also denied any proposal to replace IL-38 aircraft for the
navy. Mukherjee also informed that a new programme for development
of Airborne Early Warning and Control System was approved by the
government in October, 2004. To another question, he said that
government was aware that certain American companies had held
informal discussions regarding India's interests in acquiring modern
weapon systems, but declined to disclose the details saying they
were classified in nature. On Decision Making: “It would not be in
the interest of the country to divulge them on the floor of the
House,” the minister said. Mukherjee said that Indian Air Force
and Singapore Air Force had planned a joint exercise for three weeks
at Air Force Station Kalaikunda in January, 2006. To another
question, the defence minister said that Indian Air Force had
identified the MIG-29, Mirage-2000 fighter aircraft, AN-32, IL-76
transport aircraft and Mi-17/Mi-17-IV helicopters, for upgrades
during 10th and 11th five year plan. He said during the last three
years (from 2002–03 to December 9, 2005) a total of 21 Mig-21
aircraft of Indian Airforce had met with accidents. Despite President Musharraf's statements about not getting F-16s Pakistan got its first two F-16s. Here is the news item.
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